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2013-07-30 03:14 GMT
RBA Stevens speech recap: Still some scope to ease after last CPI
Governor of the RBA, Glenn Stevens, is giving his annual speech to The Anika Foundation Luncheon in Sydney, and some explosive comments are now crossing the wires. The topic of the speech is current issues in economic policy.
According to RBA's Stevens, long rise in mining investment is now over, saying that coming fall could be "quite big". Stevens said that easing is working to shift investors to taking some more risk, adding that shift in risk taking not yet a serious impediment to further policy easing. Stevens remained dovish on his tone, saying that "still has some scope to ease after inflation data." On the Aussie value, Stevens wouldn't be surprised if it falls further, as "the fall makes economic sense."
On the fiscal policy, Stevens said it is broadly appropriate that in line with consolidation mode. Talking about chances of recovery, Stevens said it is reasonable to expect a pick up in consumption, but not past boom levels, adding that for a successful rotation there is a need for more demand for non-resource exports. Stevens thinks global demand for Australian resources will stay high for a long time. Lastly, he said that there needs to be more confidence among businesses.
UPDATE: Stevens also added that RBA policy working differently from before, rates could be lower as spending falls. Stevens, through the Q&A, also said that "swings in AUD unlikely to derail inflation outlook" - very dovish -, adding that "not concerned that we are running out of ammunition." The market is now pricing a 25 bp RBA rate cut on August 6 at 85%. -FXstreet.com
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2013-07-30 09:00 GMT
EMU. Consumer Confidence (Jul)
2013-07-30 12:00 GMT
Germany. Consumer Price Index (YoY)
2013-07-30 14:00 GMT
US. Consumer Confidence (Jul)
2013-07-30 23:13 GMT
Japan. Nomura/ JMMA Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (Jul)
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2013-07-30 05:38 GMT
AUD/JPY slashes below key support at 89.39 on Stevens comments
2013-07-30 05:05 GMT
AUD/USD craters below recent trading range on Stevens’ speech
2013-07-30 05:03 GMT
NZD/USD breaks below 0.80 following RBA Stevens
2013-07-30 03:51 GMT
USD/JPY explodes towards 98.40/50 stops
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EURUSD
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HIGH
1.32661
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LOW
1.32474
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BID
1.32587
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ASK
1.32590
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CHANGE
-0.03%
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TIME
08:40:16
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OUTLOOK SUMMARY
Up
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TREND CONDITION
Downward
penetration
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TRADERS SENTIMENT
Bearish
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IMPLIED VOLATILITY
Medium
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MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Market trapped to the consolidation phase after initial uptrend development. Further buying interest might occur above the resistance at 1.3273 (R1). Our initial targets locates at 1.3288 (R2) and 1.3304 (R3)
Downwards scenario: If the price manages to clear an important technical level at 1.3247 (S1), recovery action might get more stimulus. Our next support levels locates at 1.3232 (S2) and 1.3217 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3273, 1.3288, 1.3304
Support Levels: 1.3247, 1.3232, 1.3217
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GBPUSD
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HIGH
1.53438
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LOW
1.53152
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BID
1.53391
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ASK
1.53398
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CHANGE
0%
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TIME
08:40:17
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OUTLOOK SUMMARY
Down
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TREND CONDITION
Downward
penetration
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TRADERS SENTIMENT
Bearish
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IMPLIED VOLATILITY
Medium
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Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is approaching our next resistive barrier at 1.5345 (R1). Break here is required to prolong upside pressure and trigger our intraday targets at 1.5360 (R2) and 1.5376 (R3) later on today.
Downwards scenario: Further downtrend expansion might face next hurdle at the local low- 1.5314 (S1). Break here is required to open road towards to our next interim target at 1.5299 (S2) en route to final aim at 1.5283 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5345, 1.5360, 1.5376
Support Levels: 1.5314, 1.5299, 1.5283
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USDJPY
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HIGH
98.463
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LOW
97.849
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BID
98.372
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ASK
98.376
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CHANGE
0.43%
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TIME
08:40:17
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OUTLOOK SUMMARY
Down
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TREND CONDITION
Upward
penetration
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TRADERS SENTIMENT
Bearish
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IMPLIED VOLATILITY
Medium
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Upwards scenario: Medium term bias is clearly negative however we expect resuming of the recovery action if the price manages to overcome key resistive bastion at 98.46 (R1). In such case we would suggest next intraday targets at 98.71 (R2) and 98.96 (R3).
Downwards scenario: Our next support level locates at 97.99 (S1) mark. Possible penetration below this mark would open way towards to next target at 97.73 (S2) and then final aim lie at 97.47 (S3) price level.
Resistance Levels: 98.46, 98.71, 98.96
Support Levels: 97.99, 97.73, 97.47
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