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2013-06-26 02:35 GMT
Pause Before Another Big Move?
Based on the price action over the past 48 hours in the forex market, volatility has declined as traders and investors wait for a fresh catalyst to drive the dollar higher. Better than expected U.S. economic data helped the greenback hold onto its gains against most of the major currencies but after such an extensive rally, the market is waiting for some confirmation that the Federal Reserve is on track to taper this year and won't do too much damage on the U.S. economy. The latest economic reports suggests that the economy may be able handle less stimulus but that is far from certain. As we said on Monday, the key is whether the other FOMC members are onboard with the idea. Right now, currency traders are in wait and see mode as they look forward to the next big catalyst - which could come from the speeches by Fed officials.
A total of 10 U.S. policymakers are scheduled to speak this week on the economy and monetary policy but only 3 (Dudley, Powell and Stein) are voting members of the FOMC this year. We will be listening to these speeches closely to hear if these Fed Presidents are less supportive of tapering asset purchases this year than the Fed Chairman. Given how quickly and aggressively the dollar has rallied, a turnaround could occur if any of the 3 FOMC voters express skepticism or reservations about Bernanke's timing on reducing asset purchases. Remember, the decision to taper is subject to a vote by the current members of the FOMC. What we know is that Fed President Fisher, who is not a FOMC voter said a significant majority backed Bernanke's more optimistic tone last week.-FXstreet.com
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2013-06-26 06:00 GMT
Germany. Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (Jul)
2013-06-26 09:30 GMT
UK. BoE's Governor King Speech
2013-06-26 12:30 GMT
USA. Gross Domestic Product. Annualized
2013-06-26 22:45 GMT
New Zeland. Trade Balance (MoM)
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2013-06-26 04:35 GMT
The Greenback awaits next catalyst
2013-06-26 03:41 GMT
EUR/USD feeling the selling pressure; holds above 1.3050
2013-06-26 02:33 GMT
GBP/USD risk skewed to the downside - RBS
2013-06-26 01:59 GMT
USD/JPY dips below 98.00 on Yen strength
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EURUSD
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HIGH
1.30872
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LOW
1.30569
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BID
1.30681
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ASK
1.30687
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CHANGE
-0.1%
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TIME
08:21:14
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OUTLOOK SUMMARY
Down
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TREND CONDITION
Down
trend
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TRADERS SENTIMENT
Bullish
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IMPLIED VOLATILITY
Medium
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MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Despite the current consolidation pattern, EURUSD remains in downtrend formation on the bigger picture. Clearance of our next resistance level at 1.3102 (R1) might trigger corrective action towards to our initial targets at 1.3129 (R2) and 1.3156 (R3).
Downwards scenario: Risk of further price regress is seen below the support level at 1.3054 (S1). Clearance here is required to enable bearish pressure towards to next aims at 1.3029 (S2) and 1.3004 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.3102, 1.3129, 1.3156
Support Levels: 1.3054, 1.3029, 1.3004
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GBPUSD
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HIGH
1.54273
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LOW
1.54022
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BID
1.54215
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ASK
1.54227
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CHANGE
0.01%
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TIME
08:21:14
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OUTLOOK SUMMARY
Down
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TREND CONDITION
Downward
penetration
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TRADERS SENTIMENT
Bearish
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IMPLIED VOLATILITY
Medium
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Upwards scenario: Market sentiment has improved for the bullish oriented traders yesterday though medium term bias remains negative. Next visible fractals level at 1.5436 (R1) offers a key resistance level. Break here would suggest higher targets at 1.5458 (R2) and 1.5479 (R3).
Downwards scenario: Current price pattern suggests bearish potential if the pair manages to overcome next support level at 1.5397 (S1). Possible price regress could expose our initial targets at 1.5377 (S2) and 1.5356 (S3) later on today.
Resistance Levels: 1.5436, 1.5458, 1.5479
Support Levels: 1.5397, 1.5377, 1.5356
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USDJPY
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HIGH
98.235
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LOW
97.646
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BID
97.770
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ASK
97.773
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CHANGE
-0.06%
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TIME
08:21:15
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OUTLOOK SUMMARY
Neutral
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TREND CONDITION
Downward
penetration
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TRADERS SENTIMENT
Bearish
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IMPLIED VOLATILITY
Medium
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Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the immediate resistive barrier at 97.92 (R1). Rise above that level would suggest next interim target at 98.14 (R2) and then final aim locates at 98.37 (R3).
Downwards scenario: On the downside our attention is shifted to the immediate support level at 97.39 (S1). Break here is required to enable bearish forces and expose our intraday targets at 97.19 (S2) and 96.99 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 97.92, 98.14, 98.37
Support Levels: 97.39, 97.19, 96.99
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