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MARKET UPDATE 24.09.2012

2012-09-24 01:14 GMT

Will the RBA cut rates in Sept? - NAB

The RBA 2 October rate decision has many media commentators expecting a rate cut and the market. NAB: "The Minutes from September were softer than the post Board Statement when they added the line that 'The current assessment of the inflation outlook continued to provide scope to adjust policy in response to any significant deterioration in the outlook for growth.”' But we have not seen a 'significant deterioration in the outlook for growth' since early September. At this stage we'd say a cut is less a 50% chance."

London session ahead will bring all kinds of talks related to EZ debt crisis as Greece is urged by Troika to reduce budgets even more, Spain will release plenty of key data on coming Friday, and rumors on ESM to be leveraged up to € 2 Trillion make the rounds. In the economic agenda most important and almost only data to be released will be German IFO business climate at 08:00 GMT although the Netherlands final GDP will also be published 30 minutes earlier. European Parliament Committee hearing on Libor scandal will also take place today.

Read More

2012-09-24 06:00 GMT

United Kingdom. Nationwide Housing Prices (Aug)

2012-09-24 08:00 GMT

Germany. IFO - Business Climate (Sep)

2012-09-24 12:30 GMT

United States. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Aug)

2012-09-24 14:30 GMT

United States. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index (Sep)

2012-09-24 04:20 GMT

EUR/USD slips below 1.2950

2012-09-24 04:07 GMT

USD/JPY rally expected to resume – H.E.Wave

2012-09-24 03:50 GMT

AUD/NZD above 1.26 off fresh 5-month lows

2012-09-24 03:07 GMT

NZD/USD under pressure; Regional bourses weigh
AUDUSD
1.04231 / 236
NZDUSD
0.82398 / 413
USDCHF
0.93450 / 462
USDCAD
0.97856 / 864
GBPJPY
126.563 / 578
EURCHF
1.20996 / 010
GOLD
1761.03 / .31
SILVER
33.95 / .97
EURUSD 1.29472 / 1.29476
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

1.3045

1.3012

1.2979

1.2927

1.2895

1.2860

SUMMARY

Up

TREND

Sideway

MA10

Bearish

MA20

Bearish

STOCHASTIC

Neutral
 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Instrument trades below the moving averages and we expect the pair to extend its losses later on today. Main scenario: Without significant economic news announcement, further consolidation looks reasonable today. The price progress below the next support level at 1.2927 (S1) might expose next targets at 1.2895 (S2) and 1.2860 (S3). Alternative scenario: The upside movement is limited by next resistance level at 1.2979 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable next target at 1.3012 (R2) and any further gain would then be limited by last resistance at 1.3045 (R3).

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GBPUSD 1.62171 / 1.62182
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

1.6295

1.6245

1.6234

1.6197

1.6169

1.6141

SUMMARY

Up

TREND

Sideway

MA10

Bearish

MA20

Bearish

STOCHASTIC

Neutral
 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: GBPUSD trades in negative tone on the short term perspective however medium term bias remains positive. Main scenario: Our next targets for current retracement formation locates at 1.6197 (S1), break here is required to put focus on the next target at 1.6169 (S2). If the market gains momentum we suggest last support at 1.6141 (S3). Alternative scenario: Next resistance level is placed at 1.6234 (R1). Brake here might eventually activate bulls pressure and enable targets at 1.6245 (R2) and 1.6295 (R3).

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USDJPY 78.043 / 78.047
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

78.47

78.33

78.18

78.00

77.85

77.69

SUMMARY

Sideway

TREND

Sideway

MA10

Bearish

MA20

Bearish

STOCHASTIC

Neutral
 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Neutral hourly studies suggest further consolidation development. We are not expecting significant volatility increase today however market is set for new targets achievement. Main scenario: If the price manage to stay below the next resistance at 78.18 (R1), we expect the see retest of our support at 78.00 (S1). Break below that level would suggest next targets at 77.85 (S2) and 77.69 (S3) in potential. Alternative scenario: Break above the 78.18 (R1)would enable higher target at 78.33 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited by 78.47 (R3).

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