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MARKET UPDATE 24.08.2012

2012-08-24 03:51 GMT

Likelihood BOJ forced to ease remains high - Nomura

Following the deterioration in the Japanese trade balance in July, Nomura research team expects that while Japanese exports should recover going forward, the recent export weakness has one direct JPY negative implication. According to the bank, it puts further pressure on the BOJ to ease monetary policy again this year. "While US economic data are now suggesting a better near-term outlook, we think the likelihood of the BOJ being forced to ease remains high for the time being" the team notes.

Again London session ahead will show no EUR macro data related risk events on the agenda, with focus on Greek-EZ leaders meetings going on, today with Greek PM Samaras visiting German PM Merkel, and also on Spain possibly asking for the bailout as soon as mid Sept according to sources, with its risk premium back above the 500bps for German 10y yields. As usually for Fridays, no EZ sovereign debt auctions will take place today.

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2012-08-24 07:45 GMT

Japan. BoJ's Governor Shirakawa Speech

2012-08-24 08:30 GMT

United Kingdom. Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q2)

2012-08-24 12:30 GMT

United States. Durable Goods Orders (Jul)

2012-08-24 13:00 GMT

Belgium. Leading Indicator (Aug)

2012-08-24 04:31 GMT

GBP/USD moving sideways around 1.5860

2012-08-24 02:39 GMT

EUR/AUD above 1.20; fresh 1-month highs

2012-08-24 00:50 GMT

RBA has not intervened in the FX market, Stevens says

2012-08-24 00:07 GMT

EUR/USD overbought, due for correction?

AUDUSD
1.04344 / 347
NZDUSD
0.81299 / 306
USDCHF
0.95650 / 657
USDCAD
0.99345 / 350
GBPJPY
124.566 / 582
EURCHF
1.20094 / 104
GOLD
1666.61 / .89
SILVER
30.34 / .37
EURUSD 1.25557 / 1.25562
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

1.2676

1.2635

1.2594

1.2533

1.2490

1.2445

SUMMARY

Up

TREND

Sideway

MA10

Bearish

MA20

Bullish

STOCHASTIC

Neutral

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

EURUSD reached our target at 1.5935 yesterday. The Samaras-Merkel meeting might bring additional volatility to the markets. We expect that EURUSD might decline today however the medium term bias remains positive. For the short oriented market participants we suggest next targets at 1.2533 (S1), 1.2490 (S2) and 1.2445 (S3). Tendency reversal is possible from these levels. Uptrend development is limited by next resistance level at 1.2594 (R1). Brake here is essential for “Bullish” market participants. Suggested targets for today holds at 1.2635 (R2) and 1.2676 (R3)

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GBPUSD 1.58582 / 1.58593
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

1.5996

1.5952

1.5912

1.5838

1.5805

1.5766

SUMMARY

Up

TREND

Downward
penetration

MA10

Bearish

MA20

Bearish

STOCHASTIC

Neutral

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

GBPUSD remains to be traded in positive tone on the hourly chart. Next news in focus from UK is the Gross Domestic Product release at 08:30 GMT. Currently market trades below the suggested support level at 1.5874 and forming correction. Our next targets stay at the same levels: 1.5838 (S1) and 1.5805 (S2). If the market gains momentum we suggest last support at 1.5766 (S3). Key resistance level is placed above the fresh high, formed yesterday -1.5912 (R1). Expected targets for long direction are placed at 1.5952 (R2) and 1.5996 (R3).

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USDJPY 78.551 / 78.556
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

79.13

78.93

78.73

78.29

78.10

77.91

SUMMARY

Down

TREND

Sideway

MA10

Bullish

MA20

Bearish

STOCHASTIC

Neutral

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Today we have important news from Japan that might establish trading tone for a today - BoJ's Governor Shirakawa Speech at 07:45 GMT. From the technical side, USDJPY is trading in a range mode at the current moment while medium term bias is negative. Our support and levels remain the same as yesterday - 78.29 (S1), 78.10 (S2) and last one at 77.91(S3). Possibility of the USDJPY strengthening is seen above the resistance at 78.73 (R1), targeting towards to levels at 78.93 (R2) and 79.13 (R3) in potential.

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