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MARKET UPDATE 23.04.2013

2013-04-23 04:39 GMT

Slovenia Bailout Would Be Spanish-Cypriot Mongrel

The ink on the provisional bailout agreement for Cyprus was hardly dry last month before bond markets shifted their attention to Slovenia, another small euro- area country with a banking problem. The Slovenian government’s borrowing costs subsequently shot up. The fear that Slovenia might be the next Cyprus, with international creditors again forcing losses onto bank bondholders and uninsured depositors, is only partly justified. Slovenia isn’t Cyprus, and its rescue program, when it comes, will probably look like a hybrid between the Spanish-style bailout and the Cyprus-style bail-in.

Like Cyprus, Slovenia has wrestled with a banking crisis for years and the big banks in both countries have made bad lending decisions. In Cyprus, that involved loading up on Greek government bonds that later had to be significantly written down. By the end of 2012, almost 27 percent of bank loans in Cyprus were nonperforming. Unfortunately, this was only slightly higher than in Slovenia, where nonperforming loans for the country’s three largest banks also rose quickly and surpassed 20 percent last year. Slovenia’s bad loans were caused by a double-dip recession, a burst property bubble and poor corporate governance. The country’s three largest banks are all state-owned and the cozy relationship between politicians, banks and corporations resulted in many loans going to individuals and companies that were well-connected rather than well-qualified. Yet there are crucial differences between the Cypriot and Slovenian cases. Cyprus’s banking sector was huge, accounting for more than 700 percent of the country’s gross domestic product by the end of 2012. By contrast, Slovenia’s banking sector is only 143 percent of GDP — much less than the 347 percent euro-area average. -FXstreet.com

2013-04-23 07:28 GMT

Germany. Markit Manufacturing PMI

2013-04-23 07:58 GMT

EMU. Markit Manufacturing PMI

2013-04-23 14:00 GMT

US. New Home Sales

2013-04-23 21:00 GMT

NZ. RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

2013-04-23 04:19 GMT

Upcoming economic data the catalyst for EUR/USD?

2013-04-23 04:08 GMT

USD remains our currency of choice - JPMorgan

2013-04-23 03:29 GMT

EUR/JPY consolidates around 129.00 support, Eur PMI on tap

2013-04-23 02:52 GMT

USD/JPY breaks below 99.00 bids

AUDUSD
1.02357 / 363
NZDUSD
0.83908 / 922
USDCHF
0.93472 / 482
USDCAD
1.02706 / 711
GBPJPY
150.700 / 715
EURCHF
1.21972 / 981
GOLD
1423.73 / .03
SILVER
23.09 / .11
EURUSD HIGH 1.30677 LOW 1.30328 BID 1.30415 ASK 1.30419 CHANGE -0.19% TIME 08:40:20

OUTLOOK SUMMARY

Neutral

TREND CONDITION

Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT

Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY

Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EURUSD determined clear sideways tone on the medium-term timeframe. Possibility of market appreciation is seen above the resistance level at 1.3056 (R1). Break here is required to validate next targets at 1.3069 (R2) and 1.3082 (R3). Downwards scenario: Fresh portion of the economic data releases might increase volatility later on today. The 1.3032 (S1) mark is key support level on the downside. Below here is a route towards to next supports at 1.3019 (S2) and 1.3005 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3056, 1.3069, 1.3082

Support Levels: 1.3032, 1.3019, 1.3005

GBPUSD HIGH 1.52979 LOW 1.52544 BID 1.52593 ASK 1.52598 CHANGE -0.2% TIME 08:40:21

OUTLOOK SUMMARY

Neutral

TREND CONDITION

Downward
penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT

Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY

Medium

Upwards scenario: Neutral tone remains in power on the hourly chart frame. Next resistance is seen at 1.5280 (R1). Clearance here is required for instrument strengthening towards to our initial targets at 1.5297 (R2) and 1.5312 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the price failed to overcome our next resistance level we expect market easing below the support level at 1.5248 (S1). Loss here would shift our technical outlook to the bearish side with expected targets at 1.5232 (S2) and 1.5216 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5280, 1.5297, 1.5312

Support Levels: 1.5248, 1.5232, 1.5216

USDJPY HIGH 99.384 LOW 98.589 BID 98.693 ASK 98.695 CHANGE -0.53% TIME 08:40:22

OUTLOOK SUMMARY

Down

TREND CONDITION

Downward
penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT

Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY

Medium

Upwards scenario: USDJPY trades under the bearish pressure today and posting new local lows. Though break above the resistance at 99.35 (R1) would suggest next interim target at 99.73 (R1) en route towards to final aim at 100.13 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, an element of supportive measures is found at 98.53 (S1). Clearance here would suggest further downtrend development towards to possible targets at 98.16 (S2) and 97.76 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 99.35, 99.73, 100.13

Support Levels: 98.53, 98.16, 97.76

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