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2013-04-23 04:39 GMT
Slovenia Bailout Would Be Spanish-Cypriot Mongrel
The ink on the provisional bailout agreement for Cyprus was hardly dry last month before bond markets shifted their attention to Slovenia, another small euro- area country with a banking problem. The Slovenian government’s borrowing costs subsequently shot up.
The fear that Slovenia might be the next Cyprus, with international creditors again forcing losses onto bank bondholders and uninsured depositors, is only partly justified. Slovenia isn’t Cyprus, and its rescue program, when it comes, will probably look like a hybrid between the Spanish-style bailout and the Cyprus-style bail-in.
Like Cyprus, Slovenia has wrestled with a banking crisis for years and the big banks in both countries have made bad lending decisions. In Cyprus, that involved loading up on Greek government bonds that later had to be significantly written down. By the end of 2012, almost 27 percent of bank loans in Cyprus were nonperforming. Unfortunately, this was only slightly higher than in Slovenia, where nonperforming loans for the country’s three largest banks also rose quickly and surpassed 20 percent last year.
Slovenia’s bad loans were caused by a double-dip recession, a burst property bubble and poor corporate governance. The country’s three largest banks are all state-owned and the cozy relationship between politicians, banks and corporations resulted in many loans going to individuals and companies that were well-connected rather than well-qualified. Yet there are crucial differences between the Cypriot and Slovenian cases. Cyprus’s banking sector was huge, accounting for more than 700 percent of the country’s gross domestic product by the end of 2012. By contrast, Slovenia’s banking sector is only 143 percent of GDP — much less than the 347 percent euro-area average. -FXstreet.com
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2013-04-23 07:28 GMT
Germany. Markit Manufacturing PMI
2013-04-23 07:58 GMT
EMU. Markit Manufacturing PMI
2013-04-23 14:00 GMT
US. New Home Sales
2013-04-23 21:00 GMT
NZ. RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
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2013-04-23 04:19 GMT
Upcoming economic data the catalyst for EUR/USD?
2013-04-23 04:08 GMT
USD remains our currency of choice - JPMorgan
2013-04-23 03:29 GMT
EUR/JPY consolidates around 129.00 support, Eur PMI on tap
2013-04-23 02:52 GMT
USD/JPY breaks below 99.00 bids
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EURUSD
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HIGH
1.30677
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LOW
1.30328
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BID
1.30415
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ASK
1.30419
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CHANGE
-0.19%
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TIME
08:40:20
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OUTLOOK SUMMARY
Neutral
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TREND CONDITION
Sideway
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TRADERS SENTIMENT
Bullish
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IMPLIED VOLATILITY
Medium
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MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: EURUSD determined clear sideways tone on the medium-term timeframe. Possibility of market appreciation is seen above the resistance level at 1.3056 (R1). Break here is required to validate next targets at 1.3069 (R2) and 1.3082 (R3).
Downwards scenario: Fresh portion of the economic data releases might increase volatility later on today. The 1.3032 (S1) mark is key support level on the downside. Below here is a route towards to next supports at 1.3019 (S2) and 1.3005 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3056, 1.3069, 1.3082
Support Levels: 1.3032, 1.3019, 1.3005
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GBPUSD
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HIGH
1.52979
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LOW
1.52544
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BID
1.52593
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ASK
1.52598
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CHANGE
-0.2%
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TIME
08:40:21
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OUTLOOK SUMMARY
Neutral
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TREND CONDITION
Downward
penetration
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TRADERS SENTIMENT
Bearish
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IMPLIED VOLATILITY
Medium
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Upwards scenario: Neutral tone remains in power on the hourly chart frame. Next resistance is seen at 1.5280 (R1). Clearance here is required for instrument strengthening towards to our initial targets at 1.5297 (R2) and 1.5312 (R3).
Downwards scenario: If the price failed to overcome our next resistance level we expect market easing below the support level at 1.5248 (S1). Loss here would shift our technical outlook to the bearish side with expected targets at 1.5232 (S2) and 1.5216 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5280, 1.5297, 1.5312
Support Levels: 1.5248, 1.5232, 1.5216
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USDJPY
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HIGH
99.384
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LOW
98.589
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BID
98.693
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ASK
98.695
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CHANGE
-0.53%
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TIME
08:40:22
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OUTLOOK SUMMARY
Down
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TREND CONDITION
Downward
penetration
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TRADERS SENTIMENT
Bearish
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IMPLIED VOLATILITY
Medium
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Upwards scenario: USDJPY trades under the bearish pressure today and posting new local lows. Though break above the resistance at 99.35 (R1) would suggest next interim target at 99.73 (R1) en route towards to final aim at 100.13 (R3).
Downwards scenario: On the other hand, an element of supportive measures is found at 98.53 (S1). Clearance here would suggest further downtrend development towards to possible targets at 98.16 (S2) and 97.76 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 99.35, 99.73, 100.13
Support Levels: 98.53, 98.16, 97.76
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