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MARKET UPDATE 20.02.2012

2012-02-20 07:00 GMT

USD/JPY has rallied above the October 31st post-intervention high as Japan posts record trade deficit

USD/JPY has rallied above the October 31st post-intervention high of 79.52 in early Asia, extending to a 6-month high of 79.82 after closing the Friday NY session at 79.48, last quoted at 79.70. The seventeen nation shared common currency has jumped to as high as 1.3176 at the weekly opening from 1.3155 late Friday in NY, market sentiment is ‘risk-on’ lifting EUR/USD to a fresh 4-day high of 1.3200 ahead of resistance at 1.3213. GBP/USD broke above resistance (circa 1.5860) to reach a fresh 7-day high of 1.5876 in the early Asia session on Monday, up circa 40 pips above the end of trading late Friday in New York

AUD/USD quoted just below the 1.0800 figure, up sharply from 1.0715 late Friday in NY. The greenback fell versus the loonie on opening as risk was on and currencies sensitive to oil price rose sharply. USA/CAD is currently printing at 9918. The kiwi has also witnessed a sharp increase versus the greenback on the closing price in NY on Friday, currently priced at 0.8412.

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2012-02-20 00:01 GMT

United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) (Feb)

2012-02-20 05:00 GMT

Japan Leading Economic Index (Dec)

2012-02-20 07:00 GMT

Greece Current Account (YoY) (Dec)

2012-02-20 09:00 GMT

Italy Industiral Sales n.s.a. (YoY) (Dec)

2012-02-20 05:21 GMT

Japan Dec Coincident Index up to 93.6

2012-02-20 05:20 GMT

Japan Dec Leading Economic Index up to 94

2012-02-20 00:23 GMT

USD/JPY capped below 79.90

2012-02-20 00:04 GMT

UK - Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) 4.1% in Feb

AUDUSD
NZDUSD
0.84006 / 031
USDCHF
0.91506 / 526
USDCAD
0.99270 / 290
GBPJPY
126.173 / 199
EURCHF
1.20882 / 910
GOLD
1734.73 / .09
SILVER
33.53 / .57
EURUSD 1.32089 / 1.32098
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

1.3375

1.3322

1.3284

1.3237

1.3139

1.3080

1.3020

1.2973

SUMMARY

Up

TREND

Up
trend

MA10

Bullish

MA20

Bullish

STOCHASTIC

Neutral

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

After the pair formed a bottom at 1.2973 (S4) – Fibonacci 50% (daily chart), the EURUSD was able to break above yesterday’s resistance at 1.3139 (S1) and we now expect the price to find a strong resistance around 1.3300 – February high. A break above the first resistance level of 1.3237 (R1) would suggest a target of 1.3284 (R2). On the other hand if the price fails to break above 1.3237 (R1), we can expect the pair to retest 1.3139 (S1). We should expect a correction downwards towards 1.3139 (S1) and then a continuation of the uptrend.

GBPUSD 1.58653 / 1.58671
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

1.5993

1.5968

1.5928

1.5885

1.5815

1.5786

1.5735

1.5654

SUMMARY

Up

TREND

Up
trend

MA10

Bullish

MA20

Bullish

STOCHASTIC

Neutral

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

The GBPUSD continued to rise from 1.5654 (S4) and reached a high yesterday at 1.5885 (R1). It seems the pair is heading for a correction and it will retest the first support level of 1.5815 (S1). A break below that level would suggest a target of 1.5786 (S2) and a further decline will then focus on the next target at 1.5735 (S3). On the upside, if the price rebounds from the first support level 1.5815 (S1) we can expect retesting of 1.5885 (R1). A further rise will then bring focus to the next resistance level at 1.5928 (R2) a strong technical resistance level – year high.

USDJPY 79.527 / 79.541
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

80.93

80.67

80.23

79.87

78.97

78.19

77.36

76.53

SUMMARY

Up

TREND

Up
trend

MA10

Bullish

MA20

Bullish

STOCHASTIC

Neutral

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

The USDJPY continued to rise from 76.02 (S4) and reached a high on Friday at 79.87 (R1) a strong resistance level as it has been retested 3 times in the past (March, April, June 2011). If the bulls do not overcome that level then we expect the price to move downwards for a correction and then to continue its upwards move. A break below first support level would suggest a target of 78.19 (S2) and a further decline will then focus on the next target at 76.53 (S3). On the upside, if the price rebounds from the second support level 78.19 (S2) we can expect retesting of 79.87 (R1).Sustained rise will be then indicating second objective at 80.23 (R2) resistance level.

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