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MARKET UPDATE 19.10.2012

2012-10-18 22:28 GMT

Framework for banking union by end of 2012

European Union leaders, according reports from Reuters, have agreed on a legal roadmap to establish a single bank supervisor for the union. A text of draft conclusions on the first day of talks in the ongoing EU summit in Brussels said leaders struck a deal on "the objective of completing the legal framework by the end of the year" with implementation "in the course of 2013", Reuters said. EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn commented, cited by Reuters, that reaching such deal is key "to break the vicious circle between sovereigns and banks". Framework for banking union by end of 2012, completion by early 2014, and is to cover 6,000 banks, according to a French official.

They added that potential for direct bank recapitalization from bailout funds in 2013. However, the German counterparts have denied that bank recapitalization can take place in early 2013. From German government source cited by Reuters: "Direct recapitalization of banks in first qtr of 2013 is ‘very unlikely’. Can only begin once an effective single banking supervisor is in place. ECB will be responsible for systemically important banks, but will oversee other banks if necessary. There will be a mix of supervision between ECB and national supervisors." Frictions between Germany and France on how to go about the banking supervisor authority had been a troubling sticking point, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel demanding stronger authority to veto national budgets that breach EU rules, while French President Francois Hollande had been more supportive of moving towards a European banking union.

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2012-10-19 06:00 GMT

Germany. Producer Price Index

2012-10-19 12:30 GMT

Canada. Consumer Price Index

2012-10-19 14:00 GMT

United States. Existing Home Sales Change

N/A

E.M.U. European Council meeting

2012-10-19 02:57 GMT

GBP/JPY bears still defending 128.00 fig.

2012-10-19 01:54 GMT

GBP/USD bearish while below 1.6065

2012-10-19 00:30 GMT

AUD/USD has double failure above 1.04

2012-10-19 00:17 GMT

USD/JPY maintains positive bias, resistance at 79.65

AUDUSD
1.03642 / 646
NZDUSD
0.81964 / 974
USDCHF
0.92460 / 467
USDCAD
0.98525 / 531
GBPJPY
127.359 / 372
EURCHF
1.20869 / 877
GOLD
1737.80 / .08
SILVER
32.73 / .75
EURUSD 1.30715 / 1.30719
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

1.3133

1.3107

1.3084

1.3055

1.3031

1.3007

SUMMARY

Down

TREND

Downward
penetration

MA10

Bearish

MA20

Bearish

STOCHASTIC

Neutral

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Both moving averages are pointing down and we see potential of further depreciation later on today as main scenario though medium term tone remains positive. Main scenario: Next attractive support level locates at 1.3055 (S1). Break here is required to put in focus lower target at 1.3031 (S2) and 1.3007 (S3). Alternative scenario: Appreciation above the resistance level at 1.3084 (R1) would suggest higher targets at 1.3107 (R2) and 1.3133 (R3).

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GBPUSD 1.60617 / 1.60625
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

1.6112

1.6091

1.6072

1.6041

1.6021

1.6001

SUMMARY

Down

TREND

Downward
penetration

MA10

Bearish

MA20

Bearish

STOCHASTIC

Neutral

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Yesterday market depreciation has determined negative market sentiment for the trading session ahead.Main scenario: Downtrend resuming is possible below the next support level at 1.6041 (S1). Clearance of this level might expose next targets at 1.6021 (S2) and 1.6001 (S3) during the day. Alternative scenario: Next resistance level holds at 1.6072 (R1), break here would suggest next targets at 1.6091 (R2) and 1.6112 (R3) in potential.

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USDJPY 79.299 / 79.303
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

79.66

79.53

79.41

79.25

79.13

79.00

SUMMARY

Up

TREND

Up
trend

MA10

Bullish

MA20

Bullish

STOCHASTIC

Neutral

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Upside formation remains in power on the medium term perspective however market looks overbought on the hourly chart and today we expect an attack to our support levels. Main scenario: Bearish penetration below the support level at 79.25 (S1) would then targeting 79.13 (S2) and 79.00 (S3) intraday. Alternative scenario: Appreciation above the next resistance level at 79.41 (R1) would suggest next targets at 79.53 (R2) and 79.66 (R3) in perspective.

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