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MARKET UPDATE 19.07.2013

2013-07-19 00:13 GMT

Bernanke: Too early to say when tapering will start

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testified before the Congress for a second day on Thursday. While the introductory statement remained unchanged, investors didn't get new insights from the Q&A session before the Senate Banking Committee. When asked about the time the Fed will scale back its monthly bond-buying programme, he said "it's way too early to make any judgment" as the Fed wants to see sustainable improvement in labor markets. Bernanke also said he has broad support for his policy outlook through the Fed leadership. "We've not changed policy. We are not talking about tightening monetary policy", Bernanke said. He added that none of what the Fed has communicated about winding down its bond purchases implies tighter policy in the foreseeable future. Among other remarks, Bernanke said he doesn't see risks to financial stability from student debt, though he said it could have negative economic consequences in the long-term. "It is not particularly likely to cause any sharp instability of the sort we saw in the last few years", Bernanke said Thursday.

Moody’s has announced a change on its U.S. outlook, with the agency now seeing the country's AAA rating back to stable from negative. The action reflects Moody's assessment that the federal government's debt trajectory is on track to meet the criteria laid out in August 2011 for a return to a stable outlook, removing the downward pressure on the rating over Moody's outlook period. The US budget deficits have been declining and are expected to continue to decline over the next few years. Furthermore, the growth of the US economy, which, while moderate, is currently progressing at a faster rate compared with several Aaa peers and has demonstrated a degree of resilience to major reductions in the growth of government spending. Therefore, the US government's debt-to-GDP ratio through 2018 will demonstrate a more pronounced decline than Moody's had anticipated when it assigned the negative outlook.-FXstreet.com

24h

All. G20 Meeting

2013-07-19 06:00 GMT

Germany. Producer Price Index (YoY)

2013-07-19 08:30 GMT

UK. Public Sector Net Borrowing

2013-07-19 12:30 GMT

Canada. Consumer Price Index (YoY)

2013-07-19 04:48 GMT

GBP/USD surge capped below 1.5250

2013-07-19 04:08 GMT

EUR/USD knocking on the door of short-term break above 1.3205

2013-07-19 03:13 GMT

USD/JPY touches the 100 handle on Yen strength

2013-07-19 02:55 GMT

AUD/USD supported on broad USD weakness

AUDUSD
0.91804 / 810
NZDUSD
0.79099 / 115
USDCHF
0.94211 / 218
USDCAD
1.03690 / 697
GBPJPY
152.356 / 372
EURCHF
1.23753 / 763
GOLD
1292.25 / .52
SILVER
19.57 / .59
EURUSD HIGH 1.31503 LOW 1.30891 BID 1.31386 ASK 1.31391 CHANGE 0.23% TIME 08:26:35

OUTLOOK SUMMARY

Up

TREND CONDITION

Upward
penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT

Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY

Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Fresh high offers a key resistive barrier at 1.3151 (R1). Subsequently loss here might create upside momentum and drive market price towards to our initial targets at 1.3179 (R2) and 1.3204 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Activation of bearish forces is possible below the support level at 1.3112 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next interim target at 1.3086 (S2) and if the price holds its momentum we would suggest final aim at 1.3060 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3151, 1.3179, 1.3204

Support Levels: 1.3112, 1.3086, 1.3060

GBPUSD HIGH 1.52504 LOW 1.51963 BID 1.52323 ASK 1.52327 CHANGE 0.05% TIME 08:26:36

OUTLOOK SUMMARY

Up

TREND CONDITION

Upward
penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT

Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY

Medium

Upwards scenario: Medium term bias remains positive however further market strengthening is required to clear resistive barrier at 1.5252 (R1). Next visible resistances are seen at 1.5281 (R2) and 1.5311 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, retracement formation might occur below the immediate support level at 1.5194 (S1). Clearance here would enable our next intraday targets at 1.5162(S2) and 1.5130 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5252, 1.5281, 1.5311

Support Levels: 1.5194, 1.5162, 1.5130

USDJPY HIGH 100.866 LOW 99.809 BID 100.063 ASK 100.068 CHANGE -0.36% TIME 08:26:36

OUTLOOK SUMMARY

Down

TREND CONDITION

Downward
penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT

Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY

Medium

Upwards scenario: Possibility of upwards action is seen above the next resistance level at 100.22 (R1). Clearance here is required to let the price achieve our higher intraday targets at 100.41 (R2) and 100.61 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other side, bearish market sentiment could be created if the price manages to overcome our next support level at 99.80 (S1). A violation here might call for a run towards to lower targets at 99.62 (S2) and 99.43 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 100.22, 100.41, 100.61

Support Levels: 99.80, 99.62, 99.43

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