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MARKET UPDATE 18.07.2012

2012-07-18 06:00 GMT

Fed Bernanke Keeps Mum... no additional clues

Asian markets have started the day off mixed after US markets rebounded amid hopes for further monetary easing in the United States. The comeback was triggered after Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke gave a gloomy assessment of the economy to Congress and said the Fed would act if the situation worsened, exactly as he had stated after the June FOMC meeting and as stated in the FOMC minutes. In New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 12,805.54 on Tuesday, gaining 78.33 points (0.62 per cent) and more than erasing Monday's losses.

The Nikkei 225 index at the Tokyo Stock Exchange opened up 41.15 points at 8,796.15 this morning. The Hang Seng Index was off by 77.12 points, or 0.4 per cent, to 19,378.21in early trading. Market focus will shift back to the eurozone as we should see Spain and Italy back in the spotlight. Commodities and currencies ended pretty much where they had begun the day.

Read More

2012-07-18 08:30 GMT

UK - Bank of England Minutes

2012-07-18 09:00 GMT

EMU - Construction Output s.a (May)

2012-07-18 12:30 GMT

US - Building Permits (Jun)

2012-07-18 14:00 GMT

US - Fed's Bernanke testifies

2012-07-18 04:40 GMT

NZD/USD may enter fresh 0.8005-0.8075 range soon

2012-07-18 04:29 GMT

GBP/USD steady around 1.5650 ahead of BoE

2012-07-18 04:17 GMT

EUR/USD failing to break above 1.2300

2012-07-18 04:11 GMT

China House Price Index flat at -1.5% in Jun

AUDUSD
1.03049 / 055
NZDUSD
0.79604 / 618
USDCHF
0.97779 / 789
USDCAD
1.01262 / 270
GBPJPY
123.565 / 580
EURCHF
1.20114 / 120
GOLD
1578.78 / .06
SILVER
27.18 / .21
EURUSD 1.22836 / 1.22842
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

1.2472

1.2394

1.2345

1.2218

1.2140

1.2091

SUMMARY

Down

TREND

Down
trend

MA10

Bullish

MA20

Bearish

STOCHASTIC

Oversold

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technicals remain bearish, but a breach above last week’s high of 1.2336 could change the outlook. The EURUSD rally from 12161 is corrective which can often be a choppy, sideways affair. The initial stop is above 12440. This rally extended to above 1.23 by the today's Asian session. The 1.2320-1.2330 area is the resistance of a previous near-term consolidation. RSI in the four-hour chart is almost 60. If the market is to retain the bearish momentum in this time-frame, the RSI reading tends to find resistance at 60. The one-hour RSI is showing some bearish divergence. A break above 1.2330 exposes the 1.24 key resistance level.

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GBPUSD 1.56427 / 1.56434
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

1.5834

1.5756

1.5710

1.5586

1.5508

1.5462

SUMMARY

TREND

Up
trend

MA10

Bullish

MA20

Bullish

STOCHASTIC

Overbought

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technicals remain bullish with a shift to neutral with strong resistance at 50 day MA 1.5647 could limit further gain. The sterling rally has carried price into channel resistance. Resistance is reinforced by the low at 15641 and channel that defines the rally from 15392. The pair continued to struggle around SMA 50 but the bullish sign on Stochastic remains intact. Our outlook keeps the bullish scenario for the rest of the day; noting that a break above 1.5680 will confirm and accelerate the bullish direction towards 1.5780.

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USDJPY 78.993 / 78.999
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

79.585

79.380

79.230

78.880

78.675

78.525

SUMMARY

Down

TREND

Down
trend

MA10

Bearish

MA20

Bearish

STOCHASTIC

Oversold

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technicals remain mixed and are hovering close to key 200 day MA 79.05 and declines are limited below 78.80. The pair has reached the -2nd Bollinger band for the first time since early June. The pair has been trapped within a very narrow range since attempting to stabilize at the 79.00 levels. Meanwhile, RSI 14 continued to stabilize below the value of 50.00 suggesting further losses over intraday basis. 7890 is the important support line, if price breaks through we could see a decline to the wide support zones between 78.20 and 77.95. The current trading range is between the key support at 77.60 and key resistance at 80.30.

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