|
|
|
|
2013-03-18 02:03 GMT
Cyprus faces 'corralito' à la Argentinean
Back in May 2012, fears that Greece may leave the EU triggered bank runs in the country, and many economist speculated with the possibility of the country establishing a “corralito”- the economic measures taken in Argentina at the end of 2001 that almost completely froze bank accounts and forbade withdrawals from U.S. dollar-denominated accounts. Bank runs extended then to Spain and Italy, although they finally come under control.
But revival came back this weekend: Cyprus bail-out approval cost almost €6 billion to taxpayers, which next Tuesday –Monday will be declared bank holiday-, will find something different in their bank accounts: a one-off 9.9% levy imposed on all deposits over the insurance threshold of €100,000. For accounts below the insurance ceiling, the onetime tax will be of 6.75%.
Cyprus PM Michael Sarris, admitted it was a tough decision, and even stated “I wish I was not the minister to do this,” although he added that “much more money could have been lost in a bankruptcy of the banking system or indeed of the country.” Without a rescue, Cyprus would default and threaten to unravel investor confidence in the EU that has been fostered by ECB’s president Mario Draghi promise to do “whatever it takes” to shore up the currency bloc. However, a precedent has been set, and this partial “corralito” may trigger exactly what is trying to prevent: an erosion in investors’ confidence in the EU, and bank runs, if not in Cyprus, in the rest of the peripheral troubled countries. Monday European opening may see bank runs, particularly in Spain and Italy, and a domino effect may force governments to take extraordinary measures. “Corralito” arrived to Europe, and may be here to stay.-FXstreet.com
|
|
2013-03-18 06:45 GMT
Switzerland. SECO Economic Forecasts
2013-03-18 10:00 GMT
E.M.U. Trade Balance n.s.a. (Jan)
2013-03-18 12:30 GMT
Canada. Foreign portfolio investment in Canadian securities (Jan)
2013-03-18 23:15 GMT
Australia. RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speech
|
2013-03-18 05:52 GMT
GBP/USD stable around 1.51 despite the turmoil
2013-03-18 05:27 GMT
Cyprus all over the place and EUR/USD below 1.29
2013-03-18 03:25 GMT
EUR/GBP tumbles through 0.8550 as Euro sell-offs
2013-03-18 02:43 GMT
EUR/JPY, break of 122.00 exposes 121.10/20 - V.Bednarik
|
|
|
|
|
|
EURUSD
|
HIGH
1.29315
|
LOW
1.28818
|
BID
1.29038
|
ASK
1.29043
|
CHANGE
-1.3%
|
TIME
08:57:38
|
|
|
|
|
OUTLOOK SUMMARY
Down
|
TREND CONDITION
Downward
penetration
|
TRADERS SENTIMENT
Bullish
|
IMPLIED VOLATILITY
Medium
|
|
|
|
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Market dropped on the news from Cyprus and determined negative bias on the medium-term perspective. However break above the resistance at 1.2943 (R1) would suggest next target at 1.2971 (R1) en route towards to higher mark at 1.2999 (R3).
Downwards scenario: The Asian session momentum on the downside suggests a possible move lower ahead. Key supportive bastion lie at 1.2881 (S1). Prolonged movement below it might then expose our intraday targets at 1.2857 (S2) and 1.2832 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2943, 1.2971, 1.2999
Support Levels: 1.2881, 1.2857, 1.2832
|
|
GBPUSD
|
HIGH
1.51305
|
LOW
1.50717
|
BID
1.51041
|
ASK
1.51052
|
CHANGE
-0.02%
|
TIME
08:57:39
|
|
|
|
|
OUTLOOK SUMMARY
Up
|
TREND CONDITION
Sideway
|
TRADERS SENTIMENT
Bullish
|
IMPLIED VOLATILITY
Low
|
|
|
|
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD trapped to the consolidation phase. Fractals level at 1.5115 (R1) offers a good resistance level. Break here is required to take the pair towards to initial targets, located at 1.5135 (R2) and 1.5156 (R3).
Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the moving averages our short-term outlook would be negative. Any extension lower the 1.5082 (S1) is being able to drive market price towards to our next targets at 1.5061 (S2) and 1.5040 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5115, 1.5135, 1.5156
Support Levels: 1.5082, 1.5061, 1.5040
|
|
USDJPY
|
HIGH
94.987
|
LOW
94.311
|
BID
94.464
|
ASK
94.467
|
CHANGE
-0.83%
|
TIME
08:57:40
|
|
|
|
|
OUTLOOK SUMMARY
Down
|
TREND CONDITION
Down
trend
|
TRADERS SENTIMENT
Bullish
|
IMPLIED VOLATILITY
Low
|
|
|
|
Upwards scenario: USDJPY has gradually climbed eased during the Asian session, having made fresh low but lately lost momentum. In terms of technical levels next resistance level could be found at 94.98 (R1). Appreciation above it would enable higher marks at 95.22 (R2) and 95.45 (R3).
Downwards scenario: Our medium-term outlook remains negative. If the pair accelerates on the downside and manage to break our next support level at 94.31 (S1), it is likely to expose our next support level at 94.08 (S2) and 93.85 (S3) later on today.
Resistance Levels: 94.98, 95.22, 95.45
Support Levels: 94.31, 94.08, 93.85
|
|
|
MARKETING COMMUNICATION DISCLAIMER: The content of this material is a marketing communication, and not independent investment research. As such, the legal and regulatory requirements in relation to independent investment research do not apply to this material and it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination.
The material is for general information purposes only (whether or not it states any opinions). It does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) legal, financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by FX Central Clearing Ltd. (“FXCC”) or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.
Although the information set out in this marketing communication is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, FXCC makes no guarantee as to its accuracy or completeness. All information is indicative and subject to change without notice and may be out of date at any given time. Neither FXCC, nor the author of this material shall be responsible for any loss that you may incur, either directly or indirectly, arising from any investment based on any information contained herein.
This material may include charts displaying financial instruments' past performance as well as estimates and forecasts. Any information relating to past performance of an investment does not necessarily guarantee future performance.
Unless otherwise stated, the prices used in the examples are FXCC’s own prices, and not those of third parties.
RISK WARNING: Trading in Forex and Contracts for Difference (CFDs) is highly speculative
and involves substantial risk of loss. It is possible to lose all your capital.
Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors. Only invest with money you
can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved before
investing. Seek independent advice if necessary.
|
|
