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MARKET UPDATE 16.07.2012

2012-07-16 05:36 GMT

US to face huge eco data risks this week

Asian markets will be exceptionally quiet next week. Only a pair of central bank minutes are due out - one from the RBA on Monday and the other from the BoJ on Tuesday — and will be parsed for clues regarding recent and future expected policy actions in the wake of stimulus measures provided by both central banks.

European markets will be relatively more subdued in terms of risk influences upon markets in comparison to developments in the US. Italy is expected to approve the ESM apparatus and fiscal pact. US markets will face enormous risk on each of the corporate earnings, policy, and economic fundamentals calendars next week. Data risk will kick off the week with retail sales expected to come in largely flat on Monday.

Read More

2012-07-16 09:00 GMT

EMU - Consumer Price Index (June)

2012-07-16 12:30 GMT

Canadian portfolio investment in foreign securities

2012-07-16 12:30 GMT

US - Retail Sales (Jun)

2012-07-16 14:00 GMT

US - Business Inventories (May)

2012-07-15 22:42 GMT

Market response to Bernanke could be savage - NAB

2012-07-15 22:22 GMT

AUD/USD quiet around 1.0250, eyes 0.618 Fibo resistance

2012-07-15 22:16 GMT

ECB views on bondholders losses makes a 'risk-off' turn

2012-07-15 22:02 GMT

China has 'relatively big' room to cut RRR - Xinhua

AUDUSD
1.02312 / 319
NZDUSD
0.79670 / 684
USDCHF
0.98112 / 122
USDCAD
1.01453 / 459
GBPJPY
123.209 / 223
EURCHF
1.20105 / 112
GOLD
1589.68 / .96
SILVER
27.31 / .33
EURUSD 1.22412 / 1.22417
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

1.2293

1.2283

1.2265

1.2237

1.2227

1.2209

SUMMARY

Down

TREND

Down
trend

MA10

Bearish

MA20

Bearish

STOCHASTIC

Oversold

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technicals continue to read bearish, with a new 2-year low and all signals in sell territory. However, the RSI at 36 warns of EUR approaching oversold levels. Stochastic has crossed over into oversold territory, indicating that this pair could see an upward correction in the near future. The pair has reached its minimum in the last two years, having fallen from a peak of 1.2247 reaching its lowest level at 1.2165. If today the pair is able to break the key support at 1.2165, the next level is 1.2150, while breaking the 1.2250 resistance may postpone the attainment of these expectations. If it is successfully pushed back down then it could fall to the 1.2125; if, however, it breaks out higher than it would rally to 1.2300.

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GBPUSD 1.55717 / 1.55727
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

1.5639

1.5607

1.5590

1.5563

1.5526

1.5403

SUMMARY

Neutral

TREND

Up
trend

MA10

Bullish

MA20

Bullish

STOCHASTIC

Neutral

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technicals are neutral and confused after Friday's surges in prices expect a rally to the.382 Fibonacci at 1.5595 and then a move back to the S5 at 1.5400. A break up would target the 1.5700. Most long-term technical indicators place this pair in neutral territory, meaning that at present there is no defined trend. Most likely the pair will try to test support at 1.5570, while breaking the level of 1.5575 would delay the realization of these expectations.

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USDJPY 79.126 / 79.131
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

79.735

79.435

79.270

79.035

78.845

78.655

SUMMARY

Down

TREND

Down
trend

MA10

Bearish

MA20

Bearish

STOCHASTIC

Oversold

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technicals are bearish - trading towards the lower end of recent range, with support at 200 day MA 79.03, Price is currently at 79.10 sitting right on the support line, just below the .500 Fibonacci at 79.17 in a sideways choppy move. A break of this will confirm the move to 79.00. A breakdown there looks for the double bottom at 77.67 but before we could see a move toward 78.80. While the daily chart's MACD/MA has formed a bearish cross, indicating that this pair could see downward movement in the near future, most other technical indicators show this pair range-trading. Just a reminder, Japanese markets are on holiday today.

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