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2013-08-15 07:00 GMT
EUR/USD rips vertically on a 10-minute chart; still vulnerable macro set-up
The EUR/USD just ripped straight higher for over 400 pips on non-news related buying. Still, any upside is corrective in nature unless 1.3414 is conquered say technicians.
EUR/USD will likely be trading off of US data Thursday Despite the rip higher that just occurred on the intraday chart, the macro picture appears to be setting up for much more downside once this upside correction runs its course. The European markets are closed for the most part Thursday in honor of Ascension Day.
So, EUR/USD traders will be focused 100% on the following data points out of the US – plus an expected speech by FOMC Governor Bullard around mid-day in the US: • Monthly CPI data;
• Weekly Jobless Claims;
• TIC Flows;
• Industrial Production / Capacity Utilization; and,
• the US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey Technical outlook for EUR/USD The EUR/USD had worked significantly lower recently after peaking out at just under 1.3414 recently. That level remains THE key resistance for EUR/USD. However, there will be short-term resistance at the July 31st peak at 1.3344. Critical support for the bulls comes in at the 1.3187 level – although Tuesday’s low of 1.3233 remains very short-term support. A cross below 1.3187 will confirm that a top was made last Thursday and that a move down to the 1.2400 – 1.2500 range is under way. - FXstreet.com
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2013-08-15 12:30 GMT
US. Consumer Price Index (MoM)/(YoY) (Jul)
2013-08-15 12:30 GMT
US. Initial Jobless Claims
2013-08-15 13:15 GMT
US. Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul)
2013-08-15 14:00 GMT
US. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Jul)
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2013-08-15 04:35 GMT
EUR/GBP sitting above 0.8550 ahead of UK retail sales
2013-08-15 04:22 GMT
USD/JPY hits ceiling at 97.80
2013-08-15 03:45 GMT
GBP/AUD below 1.70 testing June highs as support now
2013-08-15 03:15 GMT
AUD/JPY struggles to break 90.00 but looking bullish
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EURUSD
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HIGH
1.33103
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LOW
1.3253
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BID
1.32896
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ASK
1.32897
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CHANGE
0.26%
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TIME
08:09:02
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OUTLOOK SUMMARY
Up
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TREND CONDITION
Sideway
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TRADERS SENTIMENT
Bearish
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IMPLIED VOLATILITY
High
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MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Neutral channel formation remains in play on the hourly chart. Our next resistance level is placed above the local peak at 1.3310 (R1). Strengthening above it would point to resistive structure at 1.3341 (R2) onto 1.3367 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, price pattern suggests bearish potential if the instrument manages to overcome next support level at 1.3241 (S1). Possible price regress could expose our initial targets at 1.3223 (S2) and 1.3202 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.3310, 1.3341, 1.3367
Support Levels: 1.3241, 1.3223, 1.3202
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GBPUSD
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HIGH
1.55232
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LOW
1.54978
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BID
1.55187
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ASK
1.55193
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CHANGE
0.11%
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TIME
08:09:03
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OUTLOOK SUMMARY
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TREND CONDITION
Sideway
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TRADERS SENTIMENT
Bearish
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IMPLIED VOLATILITY
High
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Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating when the pair approaches the 1.5538 (R1) mark. Break here would suggest next interim target at 1.5566 (R2) and If the price keeps its momentum we expect an exposure of 1.5601 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible pull back development is limited now to the key supportive barrier at 1.5496 (S1). Only loss here would be considered as a beginning of a retracement expansion. Our intraday targets locates at 1.5467 (S2) and 1.5436 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5538, 1.5566, 1.5601
Support Levels: 1.5496, 1.5467, 1.5436
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USDJPY
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HIGH
98.296
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LOW
97.584
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BID
97.732
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ASK
97.737
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CHANGE
-0.39%
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TIME
08:09:04
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OUTLOOK SUMMARY
Down
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TREND CONDITION
Downward
penetration
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TRADERS SENTIMENT
Bearish
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IMPLIED VOLATILITY
High
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Upwards scenario: Upside formation is limited now to the next resistive barrier at 98.25 (R1). Clearance here is required to provide a space for a move towards to next target at 98.56 (R2) and then final aim would be 98.77 (R3). Downwards scenario: We would shift our short-term technical outlook to the negative if the price manage to penetrate below the key support at 97.60 (S1). Loss here would suggest next initial targets at 97.30 (S2) and 97.02 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 98.25, 98.56, 98.77
Support Levels: 97.60, 97.30, 97.02
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