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MARKET UPDATE 14.08.2013

2013-08-14 01:22 GMT

Fed’s Lockhart reiterates September reduction in Federal bond buying

In news that will certainly resonate through FX Markets, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart reported that the Federal Reserve could begin reducing its bond-buying stimulus as early as its September meeting – despite inflation still being below its targeted values. One of the more pressing concerns facing investors and policymakers alike is that the U.S. economic performance is too volatile or unstable for Federal Reserve policymakers to initiate their comprehensive plan for both reducing and eventually halting their asset-purchasing program as early as next month. Ultimately though, Lockhart appeared open or receptive to at least a modest pullback in Federal monetary stimulus from its current pace of $85 billion per month. "I wouldn't rule out September," he stated. "As I see it, a decision to proceed - whether it is in September, October, or December - ought to be thought of as a cautious first step." Indeed, U.S. inflation has been running well below the Fed's 2.0% target for some time – historically very low. However Lockhart noted he did not see any signs that deflation was accelerating, reiterating that the current inflationary backdrop would still be consistent with a modest pullback in quantitative easing.

Lockhart lauded the substantiated gains and sweeping progress across labor markets in the United States, though ultimately echoed a cautionary stance regarding the weak US economic growth. This has been at the forefront given the recent release of US GDP figures in Q2, which did rebound to an annual rate of 1.7% in the second quarter of the year, on the heels of two lackluster quarters. "Recent data do not present a clear picture," he added. "Employment gains have been strong enough to lower the unemployment rate while GDP growth has remained lackluster." Alternatively, U.S. unemployment fell to 7.4% in July from 7.6% in June. One key risk to the economy continues to come from Washington, Lockhart cited, noting the distinct possibility of some type of protracted squabble over the debt ceiling that roils consumer and business confidence, as it did in 2011. Still, even if fiscal hurdles are overcome and the expansion remains on track as planned, the bar and standard for a further retreat from asset buys will remain fairly high.-FXstreet.com

2013-08-14 06:00 GMT

Germany. Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) (Q2)

2013-08-14 08:30 GMT

UK. Bank of England Minutes

2013-08-14 09:00 GMT

EMU. Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (Q2)

2013-08-14 12:30 GMT

US. Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)

2013-08-14 05:01 GMT

EUR/USD grinds sideways at 1.3263 in advance of key European data

2013-08-14 04:56 GMT

EUR/GBP capped below 0.86 ahead of UK jobs data

2013-08-14 04:10 GMT

USD marginally lower on Yen strength; Hong-Kong closed

2013-08-14 03:12 GMT

Next RBA cut November, more cuts may follow - NAB

AUDUSD
0.90979 / 982
NZDUSD
0.79836 / 848
USDCHF
0.93397 / 402
USDCAD
1.03551 / 554
GBPJPY
152.001 / 015
EURCHF
1.23973 / 978
GOLD
1320.87 / .08
SILVER
21.39 / .41
EURUSD HIGH 1.3268 LOW 1.32532 BID 1.32638 ASK 1.32640 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08:38:20

OUTLOOK SUMMARY

Down

TREND CONDITION

Down
trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT

Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY

Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Market remains relatively stable below the moving averages, though clearance of next resistance level at 1.3269 (R1) might initiates bullish pressure. Above the local high locates our intraday targets at 1.3282 (R2) and 1.3294 (R3). Downwards scenario: Failure to establish positive bias today would shift our focus to the next support level at 1.3246 (S1). Clearance here would open way towards to next targets at 1.3234 (S2) and 1.3221 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3269, 1.3282, 1.3294

Support Levels: 1.3246, 1.3234, 1.3221

GBPUSD HIGH 1.54535 LOW 1.54362 BID 1.54425 ASK 1.54434 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08:38:21

OUTLOOK SUMMARY

Down

TREND CONDITION

Downward
penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT

Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY

High

Upwards scenario: Possibility of price progress is seen above the next resistance level at 1.5472 (R1). Breakthrough here would suggest our interim target at 1.5498 (R2) and then mark at 1.5524 (R3) acts as last resistive measure today. Downwards scenario: Any downside extension is limited now to the next support level at 1.5425 (S1). Below here we see potential for the price acceleration towards to next targets at 1.5401 (S2) and 1.5375 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5472, 1.5498, 1.5524

Support Levels: 1.5425, 1.5401, 1.5375

USDJPY HIGH 98.406 LOW 97.866 BID 98.386 ASK 98.388 CHANGE 0.18% TIME 08:38:22

OUTLOOK SUMMARY

Up

TREND CONDITION

Up
trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT

Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY

Medium

Upwards scenario: Yesterday price acceleration on the upside suggests medium-term positive bias. Possible penetration above the resistance level at 98.52 (R1) is liable to open way towards to our initial targets at 98.71 (R2) and 98.89 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, break below the support at 97.85 (S1) is required to enable possible retracement development. Our next supportive measures locates at 97.65 (S2) and 97.45 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 98.52, 98.71, 98.89

Support Levels: 97.85, 97.65, 97.45

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