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2013-08-14 01:22 GMT
Fed’s Lockhart reiterates September reduction in Federal bond buying
In news that will certainly resonate through FX Markets, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart reported that the Federal Reserve could begin reducing its bond-buying stimulus as early as its September meeting – despite inflation still being below its targeted values. One of the more pressing concerns facing investors and policymakers alike is that the U.S. economic performance is too volatile or unstable for Federal Reserve policymakers to initiate their comprehensive plan for both reducing and eventually halting their asset-purchasing program as early as next month.
Ultimately though, Lockhart appeared open or receptive to at least a modest pullback in Federal monetary stimulus from its current pace of $85 billion per month. "I wouldn't rule out September," he stated. "As I see it, a decision to proceed - whether it is in September, October, or December - ought to be thought of as a cautious first step." Indeed, U.S. inflation has been running well below the Fed's 2.0% target for some time – historically very low. However Lockhart noted he did not see any signs that deflation was accelerating, reiterating that the current inflationary backdrop would still be consistent with a modest pullback in quantitative easing.
Lockhart lauded the substantiated gains and sweeping progress across labor markets in the United States, though ultimately echoed a cautionary stance regarding the weak US economic growth. This has been at the forefront given the recent release of US GDP figures in Q2, which did rebound to an annual rate of 1.7% in the second quarter of the year, on the heels of two lackluster quarters.
"Recent data do not present a clear picture," he added. "Employment gains have been strong enough to lower the unemployment rate while GDP growth has remained lackluster." Alternatively, U.S. unemployment fell to 7.4% in July from 7.6% in June.
One key risk to the economy continues to come from Washington, Lockhart cited, noting the distinct possibility of some type of protracted squabble over the debt ceiling that roils consumer and business confidence, as it did in 2011. Still, even if fiscal hurdles are overcome and the expansion remains on track as planned, the bar and standard for a further retreat from asset buys will remain fairly high.-FXstreet.com
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2013-08-14 06:00 GMT
Germany. Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) (Q2)
2013-08-14 08:30 GMT
UK. Bank of England Minutes
2013-08-14 09:00 GMT
EMU. Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (Q2)
2013-08-14 12:30 GMT
US. Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)
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2013-08-14 05:01 GMT
EUR/USD grinds sideways at 1.3263 in advance of key European data
2013-08-14 04:56 GMT
EUR/GBP capped below 0.86 ahead of UK jobs data
2013-08-14 04:10 GMT
USD marginally lower on Yen strength; Hong-Kong closed
2013-08-14 03:12 GMT
Next RBA cut November, more cuts may follow - NAB
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EURUSD
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HIGH
1.3268
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LOW
1.32532
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BID
1.32638
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ASK
1.32640
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CHANGE
0.01%
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TIME
08:38:20
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OUTLOOK SUMMARY
Down
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TREND CONDITION
Down trend
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TRADERS SENTIMENT
Bearish
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IMPLIED VOLATILITY
Medium
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MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Market remains relatively stable below the moving averages, though clearance of next resistance level at 1.3269 (R1) might initiates bullish pressure. Above the local high locates our intraday targets at 1.3282 (R2) and 1.3294 (R3).
Downwards scenario: Failure to establish positive bias today would shift our focus to the next support level at 1.3246 (S1). Clearance here would open way towards to next targets at 1.3234 (S2) and 1.3221 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3269, 1.3282, 1.3294
Support Levels: 1.3246, 1.3234, 1.3221
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GBPUSD
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HIGH
1.54535
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LOW
1.54362
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BID
1.54425
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ASK
1.54434
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CHANGE
-0.03%
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TIME
08:38:21
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OUTLOOK SUMMARY
Down
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TREND CONDITION
Downward penetration
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TRADERS SENTIMENT
Bearish
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IMPLIED VOLATILITY
High
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Upwards scenario: Possibility of price progress is seen above the next resistance level at 1.5472 (R1). Breakthrough here would suggest our interim target at 1.5498 (R2) and then mark at 1.5524 (R3) acts as last resistive measure today.
Downwards scenario: Any downside extension is limited now to the next support level at 1.5425 (S1). Below here we see potential for the price acceleration towards to next targets at 1.5401 (S2) and 1.5375 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5472, 1.5498, 1.5524
Support Levels: 1.5425, 1.5401, 1.5375
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USDJPY
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HIGH
98.406
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LOW
97.866
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BID
98.386
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ASK
98.388
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CHANGE
0.18%
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TIME
08:38:22
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OUTLOOK SUMMARY
Up
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TREND CONDITION
Up trend
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TRADERS SENTIMENT
Bearish
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IMPLIED VOLATILITY
Medium
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Upwards scenario: Yesterday price acceleration on the upside suggests medium-term positive bias. Possible penetration above the resistance level at 98.52 (R1) is liable to open way towards to our initial targets at 98.71 (R2) and 98.89 (R3).
Downwards scenario: On the other hand, break below the support at 97.85 (S1) is required to enable possible retracement development. Our next supportive measures locates at 97.65 (S2) and 97.45 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 98.52, 98.71, 98.89
Support Levels: 97.85, 97.65, 97.45
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