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MARKET UPDATE 13.08.2013

2013-08-13 00:54 GMT

Yen short trade revival subject to Japan's sales tax chatter...

By now, the market completes a full trading day in which investors and traders had the opportunity to digest what to make out of Monday's disappointing Japan Q2 GDP data, but most importantly, what might be the implications on the widely covered topic of the sales tax hike. As reported yesterday, the big miss in the Japanese growth figures, displaying a -1% negative deviation from 3.6% expected to 2.6% preliminary data, is not helping the case to implement a planned 3% aggressive increase on the sales tax. Historically, there are well-founded reasons to fear that the economy may face some undesirable headwinds if being too aggressive on a tax hike. Japanese policy-makers are growing more vocal on softer option to take on, including either a more conservative 1% incremental approach on the sales tax, or even delaying the tax hike by one year after Japan's PM Abe Adviser, Mr. Hamada,was quoted earlier yesterday saying "there is no need to hurry with the sales tax hike after the weaker-than-expected Q2 GDP as it might harm the economy." On the flip side, BoJ Chief Kuroda said last week that it is not necessary a delay in the sales tax hike, saying that “ending deflation and raising the sales tax are achievable at the same time.”

Today morning, traders will get to digest German CPI, EuroZone Industrial Production, the German Current Situation / Economic Sentiment and EuroZone Economic Sentiment. Any or all of that data has the power to move the markets if the results are too far outside of consensus estimates. The difficulty for the euro, however, is that more and more analysts are starting to “expect” better results – thereby muting any surprise.-FXstreet.com

2013-08-13 08:30 GMT

UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jul)

2013-08-13 09:00 GMT

EMU ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (Jul)

2013-08-13 12:30 GMT

US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)

2013-08-13 14:00 GMT

US Business Inventories (Jun)

2013-08-13 04:54 GMT

GBP/USD working off overbought condition with current pullback

2013-08-13 04:54 GMT

EUR/GBP treading water above 0.86 ahead of UK CPI

2013-08-13 03:56 GMT

EUR/JPY pushed up to fresh new 129.60 highs

2013-08-13 03:42 GMT

EUR/USD ignited on impressive rally

AUDUSD
0.91339 / 344
NZDUSD
0.79953 / 968
USDCHF
0.92665 / 669
USDCAD
1.03044 / 049
GBPJPY
150.696 / 709
EURCHF
1.23306 / 314
GOLD
1333.71 / .01
SILVER
21.22 / .24
EURUSD HIGH 1.3313 LOW 1.32891 BID 1.33032 ASK 1.33032 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 08:34:53

OUTLOOK SUMMARY

Down

TREND CONDITION

Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT

Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY

Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Price dip lower yesterday and finally stabilized. A violation of next resistance at 1.3313 (R1) might call for a run towards to next target at 1.3327 (R2) and any further appreciation would then be limited to final target at 1.3340 (R3). Downwards scenario: We placed our support level right below the session low at 1.3288 (S1). Clearance here is liable to open way towards to our interim target at 1.3275 (S2) and then might expose final aim at 1.3262 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3313, 1.3327, 1.3340

Support Levels: 1.3288, 1.3275, 1.3262

GBPUSD HIGH 1.54649 LOW 1.54472 BID 1.54599 ASK 1.54607 CHANGE 0% TIME 08:34:54

OUTLOOK SUMMARY

Down

TREND CONDITION

Downward
penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT

Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY

High

Upwards scenario: Market trapped to the consolidation phase after initial uptrend development. Further buying interest might occur above the resistance at 1.5485 (R1). Our initial targets locates at 1.5512 (R2) and 1.5538 (R3) Downwards scenario: On the downside Cable is approaching our next supportive barrier at 1.5442 (S1). Break here is required to drive market price towards to next visible targets at 1.5415 (S2) and 1.5388 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 1.5485, 1.5512, 1.5538

Support Levels: 1.5442, 1.5415, 1.5388

USDJPY HIGH 97.561 LOW 96.857 BID 97.451 ASK 97.454 CHANGE 0.57% TIME 08:34:55

OUTLOOK SUMMARY

Up

TREND CONDITION

Upward
penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT

Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY

Medium

Upwards scenario: Instrument gained momentum on the upside recently, turning short-term bias to the positive side. Next resistive structure on the way lies at 97.65 (R1), break here would suggest next intraday targets at 97.88 (R2) and 98.11 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside fluctuations remains for now limited to the key support barrier at 97.14 (S1). Only clear break here would be a signal of possible market easing towards to our targets at 96.93 (S2) and 96.70 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 97.65, 97.88, 98.11

Support Levels: 97.14, 96.93, 96.70

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