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2012-09-12 04:16 GMT
Consensus ESM approved: Will it come with conditions?
“Market consensus for tomorrow's Constitutional Court judgement is overwhelmingly that the Constitutional Court will not block ESM and the Fiscal Pact: 99% of respondents in our Investor poll this week subscribe to this view.”
According to a Reuters poll of 20 legal experts, there is unanimous consensus the soon-to-be-established ESM will be approved but with strings as the wildcard.
Strings could mean a German limit on contributions, making a case for euro shorts ahead of the court decision, due at 0800 GMT today.
London session ahead will be very busy as the common currency faces one of most important days ahead for its future. There are plenty of risk events in the coming hours, that will presumable pick volatility up. For starters in terms of macro data EUR related France will release CPI figures for Aug at 05:30 GMT, followed by German CPI 30 minutes later, and French current account at 06:45 GMT. Spain CPI will be out at 07:00 GMT, followed by Italian industrial production 1 hour later, and EU industrial production along with Portugal CPI another hour after.
Read More
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2012-09-12 06:00 GMT
Germany. Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (Aug)
2012-09-12 08:30 GMT
United Kingdom. Claimant Count Change (Aug)
2012-09-12 09:00 GMT
E.M.U. Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (Jul)
2012-09-12 21:00 GMT
New Zealand. RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
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2012-09-12 04:43 GMT
EUR/USD above 1.2850 ahead of a crucial day for the common currency
2012-09-12 03:30 GMT
NZD/USD rally hits 0.8200, highest in 5 weeks
2012-09-12 02:45 GMT
AUD/JPY approaching 50% Fibo res.
2012-09-12 01:54 GMT
USD/JPY rising back toward 78.00 as Asia turns ‘risk-on’
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SUMMARY
Up
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TREND
Up
trend
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MA10
Bullish
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MA20
Bullish
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STOCHASTIC
Neutral
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MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Constitutional court expected to give its preliminary ruling on the ESM and the fiscal compact today, this would be the major market driver for the currency. Our target at 1.2870 was met yesterday and market closed on a positive note. Fresh high, formed today at 1.2885 (R1) is a next attractive point for the uptrend penetration. If a brake occur here we suggest gradual targets to be placed at 1.2952 (R2) and 1.3018 (R3). Next upcoming support holds at 1.2837 (S1), a consolidation development below it might take the pair towards to eventual supports located at 1.2767 (S2) and 1.2701 (S3) in potential.
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SUMMARY
Up
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TREND
Up
trend
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MA10
Bullish
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MA20
Bullish
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STOCHASTIC
Neutral
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MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Cable managed to advance above the suggested resistance level at 1.6034 and printed a fresh high during the European session at 1.6085 (R1), which is our next resistance level for today. Rise above it might keep the bearish pressure intact and expose next targets at 1.6136 (R2) and 1.6186 (R3) later on today. We placed our next support level below the both moving averages at 1.6051 (S1). Loss here might enable bearish pressure and downgrade Cable towards to expected targets at 1.5997 (S2) and 1.5940 (S3). United Kingdom Claimant Count Change at 08:30 GMT is the next data release in focus.
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SUMMARY
Down
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TREND
Downward
penetration
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MA10
Bullish
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MA20
Bearish
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STOCHASTIC
Neutral
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MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
USDJPY gained momentum yesterday and reached our downside target at 77.81. A medium-term bias is negative now though intraday bullish forces might be activated if the pair penetrates above the resistance level at 78.01 (R1). Next immediate resistance levels holds at 78.17 (R2) and 78.33 (R3). Conversely, next support level stays right below the fresh low, provided yesterday at 77.69 (S1). Brake here would suggest next target at 77.51 (S2) and any further fall would then be limited by last support at 77.33 (S3).
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MARKET INFORMATION AND OPINIONS: Any information provided by FXCC
on this newsletter, including but not limited to news, research, opinions, analyses
and prices, is provided as commentary on the Forex market generally -- in other
words, it is not, and should not be considered as, investment advice. Consequently,
FXCC shall not be liable for any loss or damage, including but not limited to loss
of profits, which arises directly or indirectly from reliance upon or use of information
contained on this newsletter.
RISK WARNING: Trading in Forex and Contracts for Difference (CFDs) is highly speculative
and involves substantial risk of loss. It is possible to lose all your capital.
Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors. Only invest with money you
can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved before
investing. Seek independent advice if necessary.
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