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MARKET UPDATE 12.07.2013

2013-07-12 01:10 GMT

ECB Monthly Report: Interest rates could be reduced further

The ECB signalized in its July Monthly Report that interest rates could be reduced further, should the price stability outlook warrant it. The recently introduced forward guidance was also included: “The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time.” There was also some clarification of its time horizon: “The extended period of time over which the Governing Council currently expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels is a flexible horizon which does not pre-specify an end-date but is conditional on the Governing Council’s assessment of the economic fundamentals that determine underlying inflation."

Furthermore, the Council pointed to recent improvements in Eurozone sentiment indicators which suggest a gradual recovery of the economy later this year and in 2014. To support it, the ECB is prepared to maintain the accomodative monetary policy for as long as necessary. The accomodative policy should prop up domestic demand while the recovery in global demand should boost export growth in the area. Additionally, the Governing Council suggested that “the overall improvements in financial markets seen since last summer should work their way through to the real economy, as should the progress made in fiscal consolidation.”-FXstreet.com

2013-07-12 09:00 GMT

EMU. Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY)

2013-07-12 12:30 GMT

USA. Producer Price Index (YoY)

2013-07-12 13:55 GMT

USA. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment

2013-07-12 17:00 GMT

USA. Fed's Bullard speech

2013-07-12 04:44 GMT

GBP/USD eases below 1.5200

2013-07-12 03:27 GMT

Gold below $1290, Oil above $104

2013-07-12 02:41 GMT

AUD/USD defending 0.9130 support

2013-07-12 01:42 GMT

USD/JPY breaks through stops at 99.10

AUDUSD
0.91687 / 692
NZDUSD
0.78586 / 597
USDCHF
0.94803 / 813
USDCAD
1.03679 / 683
GBPJPY
150.261 / 270
EURCHF
1.23945 / 955
GOLD
1281.48 / .81
SILVER
19.96 / .97
EURUSD HIGH 1.31002 LOW 1.30728 BID 1.30752 ASK 1.30756 CHANGE -0.16% TIME 08:26:43

OUTLOOK SUMMARY

Up

TREND CONDITION

Upward
penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT

Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY

Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Fractals level at 1.3124 (R1) offers a key resistive measure on the downside. Break here is required to enable bearish pressure and validate next target at 1.3167 (R2). Final support for today locates at 1.3208 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays above the moving averages our medium-term outlook would be positive. Though extension lower the 1.3028 (S1) is being able to drive market price towards to initial supports at 1.2988 (S2) and 1.2945 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3124, 1.3167, 1.3208

Support Levels: 1.3028, 1.2988, 1.2945

GBPUSD HIGH 1.5189 LOW 1.51666 BID 1.51702 ASK 1.51710 CHANGE -0.09% TIME 08:26:44

OUTLOOK SUMMARY

Up

TREND CONDITION

Up
trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT

Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY

Medium

Upwards scenario: We are not expecting significant volatility increase today however appreciation above the resistive structure at 1.5222 (R1) might trigger bullish pressure and drive market price towards to next targets at 1.5250 (R2) and 1.5278 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next supportive mark locates at 1.5145 (S1). Depreciation below it might shift short-term tendency to the bearish side and validate our next targets at 1.5117 (S2) and 1.5088 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5222, 1.5250, 1.5278

Support Levels: 1.5145, 1.5117, 1.5088

USDJPY HIGH 99.321 LOW 98.675 BID 99.048 ASK 99.048 CHANGE 0.11% TIME 08:26:45

OUTLOOK SUMMARY

Down

TREND CONDITION

Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT

Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY

Medium

Upwards scenario: USDJPY trapped to the consolidation phase after the initial downtrend formation. Break of resistive level at 99.36 (R1) is required to enable recovery action. Our intraday targets are placed at 99.68 (R2) and 99.98 (R3). Downwards scenario: Though medium-term perspective remains negative for US Dollar. Next on tap is seen support level at 98.67 (S1), clearance here is required to enable lower targets at 98.36 (S2) and 98.06 (S3)

Resistance Levels: 99.36, 99.68, 99.98

Support Levels: 98.67, 98.36, 98.06

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