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MARKET UPDATE 11.12.2012

2012-12-11 07:10 GMT

Silvio Berlusconi Makes Trouble For EURUSD Bulls

Although the single currency is higher on the day, it’s abundantly clear that the recent resignation by Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti is keeping Euro bulls at bay. The prime minister is now scheduled to step down following the 2013 budget vote taking place before the end of the year – instead of serving till April of next year. The announcement changes the political landscape of the largest of the troubled peripheral nations, and will likely add to recent pessimism when it comes to the single currency. However, with public discontent over recent austerity and tax increases rising, many of Monti’s previous allies have fallen away. In particular, former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and his People of Freedom (PDL) party, have become disenchanted with the current administration. The sentiment was heightened last week when representatives of the PDL walked out of an economic reform vote – calling for a vote of no-confidence in the prime minister. The notion was unfortunately backed by several other members of the Democratic Party – Monti’s major backer in the political arena.

With Monti’s final resignation to come in the next few weeks, it will be up to Italian President Giorgio Napolitano to dissolve parliament, and either appoint a successor or keep Monti as the country’s PM. General elections will follow, placing the date somewhere in February 2013 at the earliest. - FXstreet.com

2012-12-11 10:00 GMT

Germany.ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (Nov)

2012-12-11 13:30 GMT

USA.Trade Balance (Oct)

2012-12-11 23:30 GMT

Australia.Westpac Consumer Confidence (Dec)

2012-12-11 23:50 GMT

Japan.Machinery Orders (YoY) (Oct)

2012-12-11 04:59 GMT

AUD/USD strengthens on China data

2012-12-11 04:42 GMT

EUR/USD breaking to fresh session highs on better than expected China data

2012-12-11 03:55 GMT

GBP/JPY bears defending 132.50

2012-12-11 01:20 GMT

EUR/AUD on fresh session highs following bad Aussie confidence data

AUDUSD
1.04811 / 818
NZDUSD
0.83549 / 561
USDCHF
0.93253 / 263
USDCAD
0.98651 / 659
GBPJPY
132.420 / 434
EURCHF
1.20814 / 824
GOLD
1709.18 / .46
SILVER
33.07 / .10
EURUSD HIGH 1.29622 LOW 1.29287 BID 1.29597 ASK 1.29601 CHANGE 0.15% TIME 08:05:06

OUTLOOK SUMMARY

Up

TREND CONDITION

Downward
penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT

Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY

Low

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

We expect resuming of the uptrend formation if the price manages to overcome next resistance level at 1.2968 (R1). Immediate focus comes on 1.2981 (R2) and 1.2996 (R3) in such scenario.

Resistance Levels: 1.2968, 1.2981, 1.2996

Support Levels: 1.2905, 1.2891, 1.2877

GBPUSD HIGH 1.60873 LOW 1.6069 BID 1.60870 ASK 1.60879 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08:05:07

OUTLOOK SUMMARY

TREND CONDITION

Downward
penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT

Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY

Low

The initial uptrend formation was resumed later today. Possible targets are located at 1.6094 (R2) and 1.6102 (R3), in case of successful penetration above the next resistance level at 1.6087 (R1).

Resistance Levels: 1.6087, 1.6094, 1.6102

Support Levels: 1.6063, 1.6052, 1.6042

USDJPY HIGH 82.437 LOW 82.305 BID 82.310 ASK 82.315 CHANGE -0.06% TIME 08:05:08

OUTLOOK SUMMARY

Sideway

TREND CONDITION

Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT

Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY

Low

USD/JPY trades in non-directional basis on the medium term perspective. Further price decrease is expected below the next support level at 82.28 (S1). Break here is required to enable next targets at 82.20 (S2) and 82.14 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 82.44, 82.50, 82.56

Support Levels: 82.28, 82.20, 82.14

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