2012-05-11 07:00 GMT
Eco Calendar thin keep an eye on Politics
Global equities continue to retreat despite a decent round of overnight fundamentals, as Greece's high stakes election drama weighs on market sentiment. European equity benchmarks are lower and Dow futures are suggesting a tiny drop at the market open. Global currency markets are divided with the A$, NZ$, pound sterling and CAD all up against the USD while the won, Scandinavian currencies and the rand are all lower and the euro is flat. Most European debt markets are rallying or are flat across 10s except for UK 10s that were disappointed by flat stimulus from the BoE.
Solid European manufacturing data didn’t much help the global market tone. French manufacturing production climbed 1.4% m/m and far surpassed consensus expectations for a small drop, even as total industrial production fell thanks to lower electricity and gas production following the prior month’s massive gain in this category. Italian manufacturing also climbed 0.5% and surpassed expectations. UK manufacturing production climbed 0.9% m/m which nearly doubled consensus.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel is sticking to her guns and good for her. She reiterated this morning that deficit financed stimulus to growth is a misguided path, and that austerity is the only solution. This continues to put the Franco-German partnership on a collision course over the summer.
In the US yesterday data was received with mixed sentiment. Chairman Bernanke’s speech was market neutral.
Chinese data has been lackluster, but not market movers.
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2012-05-11 8:30 GMT
GBP - Producer Price Index - Input / output
2012-05-11 11:00 GMT
CAD - Net Change in Employment (Apr)
2012-05-11 12:30 GMT
USD - Producer Price Index (YoY) & (MoM)
2012-05-11 12:30 GMT
CAD - Unemployment Rate
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2012-05-11 06:12 GMT
Germany: Annual Inflation unchanged at 2.1% in April
2012-05-11 06:11 GMT
China Apr Urban investment (YTD) (YoY) down to 20.2%
2012-05-11 06:08 GMT
China Retail Sales (YoY) declines to 14.1% vs 15.2%
2012-05-11 06:03 GMT
Germany: CPI (YoY) unchanged at 2.1% in Apr; (MoM) rises 0.2%
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SUMMARY
Bearish
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TREND
Down
trend
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MA10
Bearish
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MA20
Bearish
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STOCHASTIC
Oversold
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MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Major bearish reversal pattern has broken psychological support at 1.3000. A sustained close below 1.3000 unlocks the important multi-month reversal pattern for a fast move into 1.2626 (16 January). Only a sustained daily close back above 1.3284 puts this scenario on hold for a potential recovery into our upside target zone at 1.3430/60 (200-day average). Signals all continue to remain bearish
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SUMMARY
Bearish
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TREND
Down
trend
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MA10
Bearish
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MA20
Bearish
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STOCHASTIC
Bearish
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MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Watch for more choppy activity over the short-term the overall tone remains positive. A return to 1.6199 would suggest completion of the correction, setting the stage for an attack on 1.6302 then 1.6500/1.6618 (psychological) as the bull run extends. A close back below 1.6063 from here would suggest stalling upside momentum, with support at 1.5805 watch for key support at 1.5603.
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SUMMARY
Bearish
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TREND
Up
trend
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MA10
Bearish
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MA20
Bearish
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STOCHASTIC
Bearish
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MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
The yen continues to trade within a multi-week bear channel, only a snap back above the upper ceiling near 80.50 signals a potential recovery higher into 82.00. This may offer renewed buying opportunities. A sustained weakness beneath 80.00-80.12 (38.2% Fibonacci retrace/January advance), will lead to further setbacks into critical support at 79.16 (61.8% Fibonacci).
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