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MARKET UPDATE 10.04.2013

2011-08-10 11:14 GMT

Moody’s maintains a negative outlook on Spanish rating

Moody’s rating agency announced today that it maintains a negative outlook on Spain’s Baa3 credit rating. One of the main reasons for this decision was the agency’s conviction that the country will fail to reach the 4.5% deficit target fixed by the EU. In Moody’s opinion, Spain will only manage to bring down its deficit to 6% this year, failing thus to reach the 4.5% target required by Brussels. In the report, which was released in the European morning, the agency assures that the continuous deviations from the deficit objectives and the recurring revisions of the estimates carried out by the Spanish government undermine its credibility. Even though the agency acknowledges the country’s fiscal consolidation efforts and highlights the good results obtained in 2012, it also warns against the multiple threats to the Spanish economy.

For the fifth consecutive trading day, the euro extended its gains against the U.S. dollar thanks in part to better than expected German data. The Eurozone's largest economy reported a greater trade and current account surplus in the month of February. The trade balance rose to a high of 16.8B from 13.6B while the current account surplus rose to 16B from 9.7B. At first glance these numbers are very good and suggests that the pullback in Germany was temporary but a deeper look at the details show sizeable declines in exports and imports. Exports fell 1.5% against expectations for a drop of 0.3%. Weaker exports also hurt France who reported a larger trade deficit for the month of February. We expect the EUR/USD rally to stall at its resistance level of 1.3130, where the 50 and 100-day Simple Moving Averages converge. Meanwhile the Swiss Franc is trading lower against the euro and higher against the dollar following mixed economic data. Retail sales ticked up in the month of February but consumer price growth eased. For the Swiss National Bank, these inconsistent changes in Swiss data will leave monetary policy easy. No major Eurozone economic reports are scheduled for release tomorrow.-FXstreet.com

N/A

China. New Loans (Mar)

2013-04-10 17:00 GMT

USA. 10-Year Note Auction

2013-04-10 18:00 GMT

USA. US FOMC Minutes

2013-04-10 22:30 GMT

New Zeland. Business NZ PMI (Mar)

2013-04-10 04:29 GMT

EUR/USD, above 1.31 where true strength test begins

2013-04-10 03:31 GMT

NZD/JPY at 95 not outside the bounds of possibility - BNZ

2013-04-10 02:26 GMT

AUD/JPY pushes again above 104 highs post China trade deficit

2013-04-10 02:22 GMT

AUD/USD strengthens bullish case; 1.0516 new high post China trade

AUDUSD
1.04984 / 993
NZDUSD
0.85241 / 253
USDCHF
0.93267 / 278
USDCAD
1.01622 / 633
GBPJPY
151.930 / 945
EURCHF
1.21952 / 964
GOLD
1586.68 / .96
SILVER
27.93 / .95
EURUSD HIGH 1.30907 LOW 1.30731 BID 1.30754 ASK 1.30763 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 08:35:48

OUTLOOK SUMMARY

Up

TREND CONDITION

Up
trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT

Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY

Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: While price is quoted above the moving averages out technical outlook would be positive. Yesterday high offers next resistance level at 1.3103 (R1). Any price action above it would suggest next targets at 1.3128 (R2) and 1.3154 (S3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the support at 1.3068 (S1) is liable to put more downward pressure on the instrument in the near-term perspective. As a result our supportive means at 1.3042 (S2) and 1.3015 (S3) might be triggered.

Resistance Levels: 1.3103, 1.3128, 1.3154

Support Levels: 1.3068, 1.3042, 1.3015

GBPUSD HIGH 1.53389 LOW 1.53125 BID 1.53201 ASK 1.53205 CHANGE 0.02% TIME 08:35:49

OUTLOOK SUMMARY

Up

TREND CONDITION

Upward
penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT

Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY

Medium

Upwards scenario: On the upside potential is seen for a break above the resistance at 1.5341 (R1). In such case we would suggest next target at 1.5361 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistance at 1.5382 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, successful retest of our next support level at 1.5311 (S1) might provide sufficient momentum for the price acceleration towards to interim target at 1.5292 (S2). Final aim for today locates at 1.5271 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5341, 1.5361, 1.5382

Support Levels: 1.5311, 1.5292, 1.5271

USDJPY HIGH 99.314 LOW 98.914 BID 99.129 ASK 99.135 CHANGE 0.11% TIME 08:35:50

OUTLOOK SUMMARY

Up

TREND CONDITION

Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT

Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY

Medium

Upwards scenario: We are not expecting busy session ahead however upwards extension above the resistance at 99.65 (R1) level would keep the bullish structure intact and validate our next intraday targets at 100.12 (R2) and 100.57 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the short-term perspective the pair might encounter supportive measures at 98.74 (S1). Loss here might change intraday technical structure and opens the way for a test of 98.32 (S2) and 97.89 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 99.65, 100.12, 100.57

Support Levels: 98.74, 98.32, 97.89

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