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MARKET UPDATE 10.01.2013

2013-01-10 06:06 GMT

Limited chance of ECB rate cut in January; BoE unlikely to act

Not much excitement is expected from the first ECB and BoE monetary policy meetings of 2013, as the majority of economists believe both central banks will remain on hold this month. Nevertheless, there are some doubts concerning ECB's action, as Mario Draghi hinted in December at a possibility of another rate reduction.

The general expectation for ECB's January monetary policy meeting is that of no change. Despite the fact that the central bank signalized its readiness to perform further rate cuts, "they know as well as everyone else in the market that we can’t carry on with such low interest rates for ever," as Steve Ruffley suggests. Other contributors point out that the OMT program has brought relief to the markets, that peripheral countries' bond yields have dropped and that "fundamentals are showing signs of stabilization in major countries like France and Germany," in the words of Richard C. Lee, and that all of these factors significantly reduce the need for a cut. -FXstreet.com

2013-01-10 12:00 GMT

United Kingdom. BoE Interest Rate Decision

2013-01-10 12:45 GMT

E.M.U. ECB Interest Rate Decision

2013-01-10 13:30 GMT

Canada. New Housing Price Index (YoY) (Nov)

2013-01-10 23:50 GMT

Japan. Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Nov)

2013-01-10 05:34 GMT

EUR/GBP flat around 0.8150 ahead of BoE/ECB

2013-01-10 05:34 GMT

Can the ECB bring clarity to the EUR/USD?

2013-01-10 05:18 GMT

NZD/JPY highest since Sept 2008 above 74.00

2013-01-10 04:52 GMT

USD/JPY rally reaching a peak - ANZ

AUDUSD
1.04981 / 990
NZDUSD
0.84040 / 053
USDCHF
0.92640 / 652
USDCAD
GBPJPY
EURCHF
1.20859 / 873
GOLD
1655.05 / .33
SILVER
30.37 / .39
EURUSD HIGH 1.30661 LOW 1.30388 BID 1.30458 ASK 1.30464 CHANGE -0.14% TIME 07:55:11

OUTLOOK SUMMARY

Down

TREND CONDITION

Downward
penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT

Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY

High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3058 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we suggest next target at 1.3073 (R2) with possibility to reach final resistance at 1.3087 (R3). Today in focus- ECB Rate decision at 12:45 GMT. Downwards scenario: While both moving averages are pointing down, medium-term negative market sentiment would be valid. Key support lie at 1.3036 (S1), below here opens route towards to our initial targets at 1.3021 (S2) and 1.3005 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3058, 1.3073, 1.3087

Support Levels: 1.3036, 1.3021, 1.3005

GBPUSD HIGH 1.60269 LOW 1.6004 BID 1.60102 ASK 1.60112 CHANGE -0.07% TIME 07:55:12

OUTLOOK SUMMARY

Down

TREND CONDITION

Downward
penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT

Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY

High

Upwards scenario: BOE Interest Rate decision at 12:00 GMT might increase volatility today. Next immediate resistance is seen at 1.6036 (R1). Above that level opens a route towards to higher target at 1.6059 (R2) and any further price advance would then be targeting 1.6083 (R3). Downwards scenario: Market seems to have found a base at fresh low formed yesterday. Below here locates our next support level at 1.5992 (S1) and opens way towards to immediate supports at 1.5969 (S2) and 1.5945 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6036, 1.6059, 1.6083

Support Levels: 1.5992, 1.5969, 1.5945

USDJPY HIGH 88.213 LOW 87.862 BID 88.178 ASK 88.183 CHANGE 0.35% TIME 07:55:13

OUTLOOK SUMMARY

Up

TREND CONDITION

Upward
penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT

Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY

Medium

Upwards scenario: USDJPY having during the Asian session and found an element of resistive measures at 88.22 (R1). Clearance of this level would suggest uptrend development with possible targets at 88.36 (R2) and 88.51 (R3) Downwards scenario: A corrective phase might occur below the immediate support level at 88.00 (S1). Clearance here is required to develop a short-term bearish momentum and expose our next target at 87.85 (S2). Any further correction would then be targeting 87.70 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 88.22, 88.36, 88.51

Support Levels: 88.00, 87.85, 87.70

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