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2012-10-08 22:25 GMT
IMF cuts global GDPs forecast, dowside risks worsen
The IMF has lowered the euro zone GDP outlook for 2012 by -0.1% to -0.4% from -0.3%, while setting a +0.2% in 2013 from +0.7%. Progress toward banking, fiscal union is required for rosier revisions. ECB could cut rates further, the institution says.
Japan 2012 growth forecast was also cut to 2.2% from 2.4%, 2013 stands now at 1.2% from 1.5%. The BOJ easing program may help its GDP target, although more is needed to reach 1% inflation goal. China 2012 growth forecast was downgraded to 7.8% from 8.0%, 2013 forecast at 8.2% from 8.5%.
On the US front, IMF said “imperative” to avoid year-end fiscal cliff, as it could reduce 4% of GDP in 2013 in the worst case scenario. U.S., Canadian economies GDPs are projected at around 2% in 2012 and 2013, but both face large downside risks.
Cuts 2012 global GDP growth forecast to 3.3% from 3.5% in July and 2013 forecast to 3.6% from 3.9%. “General feeling of uncertainty” holding back global growth.
The UK is the focus of the day ahead, "with the August snapshot of industrial- and manufacturing sector output on offer as well as foreign trade data for the same month" Rabobank notes. The bank adds: "A small fall in industrial output is expected but after a pretty strong July reading, the sector is tracking to grow output in 3Q as a whole." The NIESR, a UK Think Tank, will also release their estimate of 3Q GDP growth.
Read More
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Tentative
ECOFIN Meetings
2012-10-09 07:30 GMT
ECB President Draghi Speaks
2012-10-09 08:30 GMT
Manufacturing Production
2012-10-09 14:00 GMT
NIESR GDP Estimate
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2012-10-09 05:00 GMT
GBP/USD consolidating ahead of UK data
2012-10-09 03:58 GMT
EUR/USD still below 1.30
2012-10-09 03:56 GMT
Will GBP/JPY’s sell-off extend?
2012-10-09 00:39 GMT
AUD/USD breaks Monday's high, descending trendline
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SUMMARY
Up
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TREND
Upward
penetration
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MA10
Bullish
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MA20
Bullish
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STOCHASTIC
Neutral
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MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Yesterday pair gained momentum on the downside and close on the negative territory however medium term bias remains positive for EURUSD.
Main scenario: Pair is moving towards to our next resistance level at 1.2999 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next targets at 1.3024 (R2) and 1.3049 (R3).
Alternative scenario: The downside trend evolvement is limited by next support level at 1.2968 (S1), break here might lead to the targets execution at 1.2942 (S2) and 1.2917 (S3).
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SUMMARY
Down
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TREND
Downward
penetration
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MA10
Bullish
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MA20
Bearish
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STOCHASTIC
Neutral
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MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Market sentiment is negative on GBPUSD as of yesterday sharp fall. We expect to see new lows formation today.
Main scenario: Decline below the support level at 1.6019 (S1) would suggest next target at 1.5990 (S2) and any further easing would then be targeting 1.5961 (S3).
Alternative scenario: If the price manages to stay above the suggested support at 1.6019 (S1), we expect attack to the resistance level at 1.6066 (R1). Clearance here is required for the instrument strengthening towards to our targets at 1.6096 (R2) and 1.6127 (R3) in potential.
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SUMMARY
Up
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TREND
Upward
penetration
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MA10
Bullish
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MA20
Bullish
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STOCHASTIC
Neutral
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MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: USDJPY still is under the bullish pressure on the medium term perspective. Though, possibility of further market decline is high today.
Main scenario: Next support level stays at 78.28 (S1). Break here would suggest next target at 78.14 (S2) and any further fall would then be limited by last support at 78.00 (S3).
Alternative scenario: A medium-term bias is negative now though intraday bullish forces might be activated if the pair penetrates above the resistance level at 78.48 (R1). Next immediate resistance levels holds at 78.62 (R2) and 78.76 (R3).
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on this newsletter, including but not limited to news, research, opinions, analyses
and prices, is provided as commentary on the Forex market generally -- in other
words, it is not, and should not be considered as, investment advice. Consequently,
FXCC shall not be liable for any loss or damage, including but not limited to loss
of profits, which arises directly or indirectly from reliance upon or use of information
contained on this newsletter.
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