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2013-06-07 04:16 GMT
Will Non-Farm Payrolls Save or Kill the Dollar?
The big story today in the financial markets was the sell-off in the U.S. dollar. The greenback fell quickly and aggressively against all of the major currencies right around the European close and held onto its losses to end the day down 2% against the Japanese Yen and more than 1% against the euro, British pound and Swiss Franc. There were a few different factors behind the sell-off in the greenback. The dollar initially traded lower on the optimistic comments from ECB President Draghi but those losses were contained to the EUR/USD. USD/JPY did not see any losses until 90 minutes before the European close at 12pm NY Time and only when it started to break down did the dollar collapse against all of the major currencies.
Economists are looking for 165K jobs to be created, the same pace of growth as the previous month. The leading indicators for non-farm payrolls are mixed which is why the chance of a miss is just as high as a surprise though we lean towards a weaker outcome that could extend the losses for the U.S. dollar. Jobless claims in general have been low and confidence strong. This morning, Challenger Grey & Christmas also reported a 41.2% decline in job cuts. However U.S. companies added fewer workers to their payrolls according to ADP and most importantly, job growth stagnated last month according to the ISM services report. The employment component of ISM is one of our favorite leading indicators for payrolls and the big decline suggests that payrolls could be in the tens of thousands instead of in excess of 150K.-FXstreet.com
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2013-06-07 06:00 GMT
Germany. Trade Balance s.a. (Apr)
2013-06-07 08:30 GMT
UK. Total Trade Balance (Apr)
2013-06-07 12:30 GMT
USA. Nonfarm Payrolls (May)
2013-06-07 19:00 GMT
USA. Consumer Credit Change (Apr)
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2013-06-07 04:46 GMT
USD/JPY attempts to fight back above 96.00 in Asia trade
2013-06-07 03:36 GMT
EUR/USD technical picture looks set for further advances ahead of NFP
2013-06-07 02:43 GMT
Aussie breaks 0.9550 as selling resumes in Asia
2013-06-07 01:40 GMT
USD/JPY breaks momentarily below 97 figure
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EURUSD
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HIGH
1.32688
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LOW
1.32355
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BID
1.32534
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ASK
1.32540
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CHANGE
0.06%
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TIME
08:24:35
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OUTLOOK SUMMARY
Up
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TREND CONDITION
Up
trend
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TRADERS SENTIMENT
Bearish
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IMPLIED VOLATILITY
High
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MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Apparently market sentiment is clearly positive for the EURUSD as both moving averages are pointing up. Clearance of our resistance level at 1.3305 (R1) would open the way for an upside penetration towards to next targets at 1.3337 (R2) and 1.3370 (R3).
Downwards scenario: Possible price depreciation is limited to the key support barrier at 1.3223 (S1). Break here is required to enable corrective action towards to lower targets at 1.3190 (S2) and 1.3157 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3305, 1.3337, 1.3370
Support Levels: 1.3223, 1.3190, 1.3157
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GBPUSD
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HIGH
1.56178
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LOW
1.55808
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BID
1.55949
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ASK
1.55963
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CHANGE
-0.02%
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TIME
08:24:36
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OUTLOOK SUMMARY
Up
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TREND CONDITION
Up
trend
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TRADERS SENTIMENT
Bearish
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IMPLIED VOLATILITY
High
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Upwards scenario: Yesterday high offers a key resistive barrier at 1.5684 (R1). Subsequently loss here might create upside momentum and drive market price towards to our initial targets at 1.5732 (R2) and 1.5781 (R3) in potential.
Downwards scenario: Possible downside extension might face next supportive barrier at 1.5564 (S1). Clearance here is required to open the way towards to interim target at 1.5517 (S2) and any further price regress would then be targeting 1.5467 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5684, 1.5732, 1.5781
Support Levels: 1.5564, 1.5517, 1.5467
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USDJPY
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HIGH
97.517
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LOW
95.549
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BID
96.696
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ASK
96.701
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CHANGE
-0.27%
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TIME
08:24:37
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OUTLOOK SUMMARY
Down
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TREND CONDITION
Down
trend
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TRADERS SENTIMENT
Bullish
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IMPLIED VOLATILITY
High
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Upwards scenario: After dipping lower today we see potential of market strengthening in near-term perspective. Next on tap is seen resistance level at 97.57 (R1). Break here would suggest next intraday targets at 98.07 (R2) and 98.58 (R3).
Downwards scenario: Price regress below the support level at 95.53 (S1) would increase likelihood of failing towards to our key supportive barrier at 95.07 (S2) and any further market decline would then be targeting final support for today at 94.58 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 97.57, 98.07, 98.58
Support Levels: 95.53, 95.07, 94.58
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