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2013-08-06 05:27 GMT
AUD/USD rallies initially after RBA, but a lot of resistance looms
The AUD/USD came into the RBA decision very oversold and ready squeeze the bears. Despite the initial pop, technicians say there’s plenty of resistance to conquer before the bulls take control of the macro picture. The initial positive reaction following the RBA’s 25 basis point rate cut appears to be the market weeding out those shorts who were banking on a 50 basis point cut. While nobody knows exactly how much money was being bet against the AUD/USD, but the mercilous selling that led to the extreme oversold readings made it quite apparent that the short-Aussie trade was extremely crowded – and the markets do not treat crowded trades well typically. The good news for bears that were not over-leveraged is that the RBA hinted that they stand at the ready to act further if growth continues to be a problem and inflation remains benign.
Technicians were pointing to a Fibonacci-generated downside target of 0.8812 for the current down wave in the AUD/USD. The lowest it got last week was 0.8847 – which is pretty close to the target by any measure. At that point, they were anticipating a corrective bounce that could take AUD/USD up to the 0.9226 – 0.9488 range. In terms of short-term resistance for this bounce, technicians point first to the area around 0.9002 as one potential stopping point. Above that level, important resistance for the bears to retain control comes in at the 7/24 closing low at 0.9167.-FXstreet.com
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2013-08-06 08:30 GMT
UK. Industrial Production (YoY)
2013-08-06 12:30 GMT
US. Trade Balance
2013-08-06 14:00 GMT
UK. NIESR GDP Estimate (3M)
2013-08-06 22:45 GMT
NZ. Unemployment Rate (Q2)
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2013-08-06 05:04 GMT
Japan June Leading Economic Index falls to 107 vs 110.7
2013-08-06 04:48 GMT
USD pares loses; RBA cuts 25bps as expected
2013-08-06 04:47 GMT
EUR/AUD, on never-ending downfall?
2013-08-06 03:48 GMT
USD/JPY, Houston, do we have a problem?
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EURUSD
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HIGH
1.32714
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LOW
1.32526
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BID
1.32546
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ASK
1.32552
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CHANGE
-0.03%
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TIME
08:40:54
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OUTLOOK SUMMARY
Up
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TREND CONDITION
Sideway
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TRADERS SENTIMENT
Bearish
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IMPLIED VOLATILITY
Medium
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MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Despite the current consolidation pattern, EURUSD remains in uptrend formation on the bigger picture. Clearance of our next resistance level at 1.3272 (R1) would suggest initial targets at 1.3282 (R2) and 1.3292 (R3).
Downwards scenario: On the downside next supportive bastion lies at 1.3250 (S1). Prolonged movement below it might then expose our intraday targets at 1.3241 (S2) and 1.3231 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3272, 1.3282, 1.3292
Support Levels: 1.3250, 1.3241, 1.3231
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GBPUSD
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HIGH
1.53689
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LOW
1.53362
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BID
1.53376
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ASK
1.53385
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CHANGE
-0.1%
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TIME
08:40:54
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OUTLOOK SUMMARY
Up
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TREND CONDITION
Up
trend
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TRADERS SENTIMENT
Bearish
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IMPLIED VOLATILITY
Medium
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Upwards scenario: Further bullish penetration might face next challenge at 1.5378 (R1). Break here would then be targeting 1.5396 (R2) en route towards to last resistance for today at 1.5415 (R3).Downwards scenario: On the other hand, retracement formation might occur below the immediate support level at 1.5319 (S1). Clearance here would enable our next intraday targets at 1.5301(S2) and 1.5281 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5378, 1.5396, 1.5415
Support Levels: 1.5319, 1.5301, 1.5281
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USDJPY
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HIGH
98.377
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LOW
97.838
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BID
98.350
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ASK
98.353
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CHANGE
0.06%
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TIME
08:40:55
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OUTLOOK SUMMARY
Down
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TREND CONDITION
Down
trend
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TRADERS SENTIMENT
Bullish
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IMPLIED VOLATILITY
Medium
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Upwards scenario: An element of resistive measure could be found at 98.46 (R1). Clearance here would open way towards to higher target at 98.63 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to last resistance at 98.80 (R3).
Downwards scenario: Failure to establish corrective structure might lead to further downtrend evolvement later on today. Penetration below the support at 98.03 (S1) would suggest next intraday targets at 97.86 (S2) and 97.69 (S3) in perspective.
Resistance Levels: 98.46, 98.63, 98.80
Support Levels: 98.03, 97.86, 97.69
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