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2012-10-05 00:32 GMT
ECB waits for Spain to act; bailout to come over the next month - Standard Chartered
The ECB looks set to keep rates on hold in November too, according to Standard Chartered European Economists Sarah Hewin and Thomas Costerg, while expecting recession "will trigger a cut by year-end" they note. Details on the new bond-buying plan remain thin, "but the ECB is likely to be tough on conditionality" the bank suspects. As per the timing abou the Spanish bailout, Standard Chartered thinks "they will need to ask for support over the next month, despite German reluctance."
"The ECB left its Refi rate unchanged in line with expectations, although market reaction does suggest there were at least some hopes for a rate cut today", says Vassili Serebriakov, Currency Strategist, Wells Fargo Bank. "With the ECB decision out of the way, markets will be looking ahead to US September nonfarm payrolls report", he says. "Judging from recent US data, the jobs numbers should not be particularly weak, which in our view could play into further gains in risk-sensitive commodity and emerging currencies".
Read More
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2012-10-05 07:00 GMT
Switzerland. Foreign Currency Reserves
2012-10-05 10:00 GMT
Germany. Factory Orders senectus
2012-10-05 12:30 GMT
United States. Nonfarm Payrolls
2012-10-05 19:00 GMT
United States. Consumer Credit Change
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2012-10-05 05:02 GMT
EUR/USD bulls regain upper-hand ahead of NFP fireworks
2012-10-05 03:40 GMT
USD/JPY drops to session lows post-BoJ
2012-10-05 03:14 GMT
BoJ Interest Rate Decision stays unchanged at 0.1%
2012-10-05 02:07 GMT
EUR/AUD stalling below 1.2720
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SUMMARY
Up
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TREND
Upward
penetration
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MA10
Bullish
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MA20
Bullish
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STOCHASTIC
Neutral
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MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Bullish market sentiment remains in power today after the appreciation provided yesterday. United States Nonfarm Payrolls would be the main macroeconomic data release at 12:30 GMT.
Main scenario: Brake above the resistance at 1.3032 (R1) would suggest next target at 1.3065 (R2) and any further gain would then be limited to 1.3098 (R3).
Alternative scenario: Break below the support at 1.2998 (S1) might provide necessary space for retracement development. We suggest next target at 1.2962 (S2) and 1.2926 (S3) in potential.
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SUMMARY
Up
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TREND
Upward
penetration
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MA10
Bullish
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MA20
Bullish
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STOCHASTIC
Neutral
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MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: At the moment GBPUSD deviate from its up-trend formation and such stabilization might extend its power to the London session ahead. Stochastic Oscillator is pointing up and both moving averages are bullish, so far we expect further strengthening as main scenario later on today.
Main scenario: Next resistance is maintained at 1.6204 (R1), break here might open space for a move to test targets at 1.6246 (R2) and 1.6289 (R3) in potential.
Alternative scenario: Decrease below the support at 1.6165 (S1) might expose next targets at 1.6123 (S2) and 1.6079 (S3).
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SUMMARY
Up
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TREND
Upward
penetration
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MA10
Bearish
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MA20
Bearish
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STOCHASTIC
Neutral
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MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Market trapped to the range trading mode after the yesterday gains. Medium term bias is positive and we expect to see retest of yesterday high today. However if the market depreciate below the support level we expect a correction development.
Main scenario: Next resistance level lie at 78.58 (R1). Break here is required to enable targets at 78.80 (R2) and 79.04 (R3).
Alternative scenario: Risk of price depreciation is seen below the next support level at 78.25 (S1). Price progress below it might expose next targets at 78.02 (S2) and 77.79 (S3) in perspective.
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MARKET INFORMATION AND OPINIONS: Any information provided by FXCC
on this newsletter, including but not limited to news, research, opinions, analyses
and prices, is provided as commentary on the Forex market generally -- in other
words, it is not, and should not be considered as, investment advice. Consequently,
FXCC shall not be liable for any loss or damage, including but not limited to loss
of profits, which arises directly or indirectly from reliance upon or use of information
contained on this newsletter.
RISK WARNING: Trading in Forex and Contracts for Difference (CFDs) is highly speculative
and involves substantial risk of loss. It is possible to lose all your capital.
Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors. Only invest with money you
can afford to lose. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved before
investing. Seek independent advice if necessary.
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