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2013-04-05 06:00 GMT
More Risk From Portugal
The euro area has had a rough few weeks: Cyprus agreed a bailout program that will decimate its economy, Italy’s Pier Luigi Bersani, the Democratic Party leader, failed to put together a government, borrowing costs for businesses in the peripheral countries continue to rise, unemployment reached record highs, and purchasing manager indices across the region greatly underperformed expectations.
There may be one more piece of bad news to add to the pile before the week is out: Portugal’s budget for 2013 may fall apart, and with it the Portuguese government.
During his New Year’s Day address, Portuguese President Anibal Cavaco Silva called on the constitutional court to rule whether the budget, which consists of tax increases and spending cuts worth 5.3 billion euros ($6.8 billion), is legal.
If the court rules against the budget, an estimated 2 billion euros of the austerity measures may be compromised. This would immediately derail Portugal’s progress toward hitting its fiscal targets, only weeks after the country’s international creditors relaxed them. Rejection of the budget could also cause the government to collapse if the ruling Social Democratic Party cannot find alternative austerity measures to get Portugal back on track with its bailout program.
It is unclear exactly when the constitutional court will make its ruling, but it may be before the week is out. Concerns over what the court might say could account for an increase in Portuguese two-year bond yields to over 3.8 percent today, before falling back to around 3 percent again later in the day. This isn’t what a country looking to exit its bailout program and regain full market access needs. -FXstreet.com
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2013-04-05 09:00 GMT
EMU. Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (Q1)
2013-04-05 10:00 GMT
Germany. Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (Feb)
2013-04-05 12:30 GMT
USA. Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar)
2013-04-05 12:30 GMT
Canada. Unemployment Rate (Mar)
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2013-04-05 04:35 GMT
USD/JPY dives below 96.30 on massive taking profit
2013-04-05 04:19 GMT
EUR/USD negates market sentiment climbing above 1.29
2013-04-05 03:41 GMT
AUD/USD dips to 1.0400 lows
2013-04-05 02:09 GMT
EUR/JPY biggest single day rally on record above 125.30
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EURUSD
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HIGH
1.29379
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LOW
1.29186
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BID
1.29188
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ASK
1.29196
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CHANGE
-0.12%
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TIME
08:49:51
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OUTLOOK SUMMARY
Up
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TREND CONDITION
Up
trend
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TRADERS SENTIMENT
Bullish
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IMPLIED VOLATILITY
Medium
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MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: EURUSD trapped to the consolidation phase after the upside development. Yesterday high at 1.2950 (R1) offers a good resistance level. Break here is required to take the pair towards to initial targets at 1.2977 (R2) and 1.3003 (R3).
Downwards scenario: Hourly chart technical indicators readings are positive though Immediate focus comes on the next support level at 1.2915 (S1). Any penetration below it would suggest next intraday targets at 1.2889 (S2) and 1.2860 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2950, 1.2977, 1.3003
Support Levels: 1.2915, 1.2889, 1.2860
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GBPUSD
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HIGH
1.52428
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LOW
1.5214
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BID
1.52279
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ASK
1.52290
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CHANGE
-0.03%
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TIME
08:49:52
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OUTLOOK SUMMARY
Up
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TREND CONDITION
Up
trend
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TRADERS SENTIMENT
Bearish
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IMPLIED VOLATILITY
Medium
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Upwards scenario: GBPUSD lost momentum after the gains provided yesterday. In terms of technical levels next resistance level could be exposed at 1.5259 (R1). Further appreciation above it would enable intraday targets at 1.5284 (R2) and 1.5309 (R3).
Downwards scenario: Possible pull back formation might get acceleration below the support level at 1.5208 (S1). Loss here would suggest next intraday target at 1.5182 (S2) and any weakening below it would then be limited to final support at 1.5158 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5259, 1.5284, 1.5309
Support Levels: 1.5208, 1.5182, 1.5158
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USDJPY
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HIGH
97.195
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LOW
96.134
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BID
96.314
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ASK
96.321
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CHANGE
-0.01%
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TIME
08:49:52
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OUTLOOK SUMMARY
Up
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TREND CONDITION
Downward
penetration
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TRADERS SENTIMENT
Bullish
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IMPLIED VOLATILITY
Medium
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Upwards scenario: We are not expecting significant volatility increase today however clearance of our next resistive barrier at 97.23 (R1) is required to push the price towards to our next visible targets at 97.63 (R2) and 98.04 (R3).
Downwards scenario: Penetration below the support level at 95.94 (S1) might maintain a negative tone and prolong corrective action. Price devaluation would then be targeting our supportive measures at 95.54 (S2) and 95.08 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 97.23, 97.63, 98.04
Support Levels: 95.94, 95.54, 95.08
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