2012-06-04 06:00 GMT
Asian markets fall on worries of the EU
In the week ahead, the global markets will continue to gyrate between fear of Greece’s fallout from the Euro zone and hopes of austerity measures that may revive the global markets. The European Union is targeting July 9 as the start date for its permanent eurozone rescue fund, the €500 bn (USD620 bn) European Stability Mechanism. Parliaments across the 17-nation currency union must ratify the fund before it becomes available to counter the financial crisis spawned in Greece.
Until it receives 90% of its expected capital allotment, officials must turn to the temporary European Financial Stability Facility, a €440 bn fund with €240 bn available. Even Italy might be seen pressurizing the ECB to print more Euros so that Italy can also be saved. So we think these measures will be following suit that will eventually decide the fate of the markets in the times to come.
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2012-06-04 07:00 GMT
UK - Halifax House Prices
2012-06-04 08:30 GMT
EMU - Sentix Investor Confidence
2012-06-04 09:00 GMT
EMU - Producer Price Index
2012-06-04 14:00 GMT
US - Factory Orders
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2012-06-04 01:45 GMT
US Dollar rules as HK tracks risk off sentiment
2012-06-04 01:32 GMT
Australia May ANZ Job Advertisements -2.4%
2012-06-04 00:16 GMT
USD/JPY spikes; Threat of BoJ intervention
2012-06-03 23:50 GMT
Japan: Monetary Base (YoY) (May): 2.4%
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SUMMARY
Sideway
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TREND
Sideway
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MA10
Bearish
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MA20
Bearish
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STOCHASTIC
Overbought
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MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
The EURUSD has dropped to its lowest level since July 2010. Interestingly, the low today is within pips of the 2008 (October) low. The sharp moderation warns that the EURUSD could consolidate or bounce modestly in the coming days, but the overall trend remains clear in our opinion and we favor continued declines until sentiment sees a more significant shift. The next support isn’t until 12150. Resistance is now around 125.00 although the breakdown level (January low) of 126.22 (and this week’s high) would be ideal to short into if reached.
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SUMMARY
Down
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TREND
Down
trend
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MA10
Bearish
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MA20
Bearish
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STOCHASTIC
Oversold
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MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
The market is heavily oversold, so some kind of a recovery may be expected early this week. If such a recovery indeed takes place, we may see gains to 1.5680 levels. Such a rally will likely be favored as selling opportunities by the big players, because the daily trend is down.
On the downside, firm break below 1.5260/30 may bring a panic sell-off all the way down to 1.50000. There was no bounce of course (the GBPUSD didn’t even reach its 10 day average) and the GBPUSD took out nearly all of 2012’s gains in May and has reached the trendline that extends off of the 2009 and 2010 lows so we could get a bounce from these levels. If so, then resistance is 15530. A bounce into there would be a candidate to short against 15720.
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SUMMARY
Down
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TREND
Down
trend
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MA10
Bearish
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MA20
Bearish
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STOCHASTIC
Oversold
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MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
The USDJPY continues to slip and has reached the much discussed 7830 (resistance throughout late 2011). There is nothing to suggest that a low is in place right now and the next level of support is 7780. I’d be willing to try longs on a test and rebound from that level with an initial stop (plan on moving it up) below 7600.
The chart shows trending conditions are quite negative here. The prices have not overcome the 83.80 level yet on a sustained basis and remain below the declining 100-week moving average. So, the main focus should be considered on the downside. Look for a possible move down from the 2007 top and if that's the case, the current pullback should hold above the 76.00 level. A subsequent move above 83.80 will turn the hourly chart quite bullish.
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