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MARKET UPDATE 03.10.2012

2012-10-03 00:40 GMT

Eurozone QE is EUR positive - HSBC

Eurozone non-conventional monetary policy easing "is positive for the EUR, in stark contrast to the interplay between policy and FX in the US", says HSBC FX Macro Strategy Team. "The channel of influence in the Eurozone is different, with policy easing in the Eurozone seen as reducing the probability of EUR default and disintegration" the bank notes. The resultant positive EUR impact of this diminished event risk "outweighs any negative impact from visions of waves of freshly printed EUR" HSBC adds.

European morning session will have plenty of PMI service figures coming out, first from Spain at 07:13 GMT, followed 30 minutes later by Italy, France after another 5 minutes, Germany at 07:53 GMT, and EU's one another 5 minutes later. EU retail trade is due at 09:00 GMT, while Germany is closed for holidays. European Commission president Barroso will give a press conference at 12:30 GMT in Brussels along with Ireland PM Kenny. UK services PMI will show at 08:30 GMT, which could bring volatility to EUR/GBP cross, while anything coming from Spain and PM Mariano Rajoy will add to the growing speculation on the bail out for the country after Rajoy's words yesterday saying “what does it matter,” in respect to whether they ask for the bail out or not.

Read More

2012-10-03 08:30 GMT

United Kingdom. Markit Services PMI

2012-10-03 09:00 GMT

European Monetary Union. Retail Sales

2012-10-03 14:00 GMT

United States. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

2012-10-03 14:30 GMT

United States. EIA Crude Oil Stocks change

2012-10-03 04:23 GMT

EUR/USD entertained around 1.29

2012-10-03 04:07 GMT

NZD/USD finds support at 21-day EMA

2012-10-03 03:49 GMT

AUD/NZD off fresh 1-year lows above 1.24

2012-10-03 02:45 GMT

AUD/JPY below 80 for first time since early Sept

AUDUSD
1.02158 / 167
NZDUSD
0.82224 / 234
USDCHF
0.93756 / 764
USDCAD
0.98450 / 455
GBPJPY
126.111 / 124
EURCHF
1.20965 / 974
GOLD
1774.21 / .49
SILVER
34.69 / .71
EURUSD 1.29022 / 1.29028
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

1.2987

1.2955

1.2924

1.2879

1.2848

1.2818

SUMMARY

Down

TREND

Downward
penetration

MA10

Bullish

MA20

Bearish

STOCHASTIC

Neutral

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: EURUSD failed to stabilize on the positive side near to its fresh high’s and almost recover previous day gains. We expect to see negative bias formation today if the pair remains to be traded on the negative territory. Main scenario: Next support level ahead at 1.2879 (S1). Our next suggested targets are placed at 1.2848 (S2) and 1.2818 (S3) in case of successful break out. Alternative scenario: Next resistances is seen at 1.2924 (R1), clearance here is required for instrument strengthening towards to our next targets at 1.2955 (R2) and 1.2987 (R3) later on today.

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GBPUSD 1.61269 / 1.61277
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

1.6202

1.6174

1.6146

1.6117

1.6092

1.6063

SUMMARY

Down

TREND

Downward
penetration

MA10

Bearish

MA20

Bearish

STOCHASTIC

Neutral

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: Market Services PMI announcement at 09:00 GMT might bring additional volatility and assist with the trend development on the short term perspective. Main scenario: The pair has formed fresh low today and we suggest next support level to be placed below it at 1.6117 (S1). Loss here would suggest next targets at 1.6092 (S2) and 1.6063 (S3). Alternative scenario: Though, intraday bull’s power might activate when the pair approach resistance level at 1.6146 (R1). Our next target is seen at 1.6174 (R2) and any further appreciation would then be targeting 1.6202 (R3).

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USDJPY 78.221 / 78.222
DAILY WEEKLY MONTHLY

78.52

78.41

78.30

78.11

78.01

77.88

SUMMARY

Up

TREND

Sideway

MA10

Bullish

MA20

Bullish

STOCHASTIC

Neutral

 

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Technical Summary: USDJPY looks overbought and we expect some gradual easing or price stabilization at current levels prior further price increase as of main tendency remains bullish. Main scenario: Our resistance level at 78.30 (R1) is our reference point for the upside penetration. Break above it would bring in focus next target at 78.41 (R2) and any further appreciation might face final resistance at 78.52 (R3). Alternative scenario: As long as the pair remains to be traded above the moving averages, support at 78.11 (S1) is acting a protective level for the pair to plunge lower. Brake here would suggest next targets at 78.01 (S2) and 77.88 (S3) in potential.

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