FXCC Market Update 03-08-2012

MARKET UPDATE

03.08.2012

2012-08-03 04:34 GMT

EUR/USD frozen; NFP the name of the game

London session ahead will be a quiet one in EUR macro data terms, with only some PMI figures coming from Spain, Italy, France, Germany, and the UE at 07:13, 07:43, 07:48, 07:53, and 07:58 respectively, all GMT, followed by UE retail sales at 09:00 GMT, with no critical auctions from the EZ sovereign front. Spain's 10 year bond yields had yesterday biggest boost of all year going from as low as 6.6% to 7.25% highs, while Italian ones also skyrocketed above the 6.2%, while German ones plummeted again below the 1.3%, thus making risk premiums widen.

But the name of the game today is called the US NFP, which is played at 12:30GMT, and that's what everybody will be waiting for, with expectations for the figure to be around the 100k, and unemployment rate to be unchanged at 8.2%, with anything below that being a bell ringing for Bernanke's next QE3. US ISM non-manufacturing PMI will also capture traders eyes as it will probably bring more volatility to markets, more even so after decreasing Chinese PMI data, last one today being at 55.6, coming lower than previous.

2012-08-03 08:30 GMT

UK - Markit Services PMI (Jul)

2012-08-03 09:00 GMT

EMU - Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)

2012-08-03 12:30 GMT

US - Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul)**

2012-08-03 14:00 GMT

US - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

2012-08-03 04:30 GMT

GBP/USD consolidation expected ahead of NFP

2012-08-03 02:30 GMT

China HSBC China Services PMI: 53.1

2012-08-03 01:01 GMT

Next leg of crisis to prove more pronounced after ECB shocker - Nomura

2012-08-03 00:36 GMT

Clear signs that EUR/USD has further room to fall

AUDUSD
1.04740 / 747

NZDUSD
0.81298 / 306

USDCHF
0.98627 / 635

USDCAD
1.00607 / 614

GBPJPY
121.336 / 349

EURCHF
1.20139 / 145

GOLD
1589.79 / .07

SILVER
27.15 / .18

EURUSD 1.21809 / 1.21814

DAILY

WEEKLY

MONTHLY

1.2332

1.2277

1.2217

1.2133

1.2068

1.2003

SUMMARY

Down

TREND

Down
trend

MA10

Bearish

MA20

Bearish

STOCHASTIC

Neutral

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

ECB leaved interest rate unchanged and EURUSD showed positive reaction. Pair broke our expected resistance level at 1.5583 and met our final target at 1.5732. Later, marker reversed and our short target at 1.2332 was achieved. Major market driver for today would be United States Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) release at 12:30 GMT. From technical side, we expect brake above our next resistance level at 1.2217 (R1) targeting 1.2277 (R2) and 1.2332 (R3). For short direction, loss of next support level at 1.2133 (S1) would enable next targets at 1.2068 (S2) and 1.2003 (S3) in extension.

GBPUSD 1.55146 / 1.55155

DAILY

WEEKLY

MONTHLY

1.5697

1.5626

1.5553

1.5490

1.5428

1.5361

SUMMARY

Down

TREND

Down
trend

MA10

Bearish

MA20

Bearish

STOCHASTIC

Neutral

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

GBPUSD broke our suggested resistance level and further appreciation found our target at 1.5654. Than marked dropped below our support at 1.5522 and stabilized around this level. Potential is seen for break above 1.5553 level (R1), that will let for stronger appreciation and open initial targets at 1.5626 (R2) and 1.5697 (R3) levels. Downside development remains for now limited by next support level at 1.5490 (S1), with only clear break here would be a signal of market weakening with next targets at 1.5428 (S2) and 1.5361(S3).

USDJPY 78.208 / 78.214

DAILY

WEEKLY

MONTHLY

78.68

78.49

78.30

78.07

77.92

77.76

SUMMARY

Sideway

TREND

Down
trend

MA10

Bearish

MA20

Bearish

STOCHASTIC

Neutral

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

USDJPY failed to develop positive bias and dropped below suggested support level at 78.31 and exposed our target at 78.12. Technically instrument remain trading in range. A break above the first resistance level of 78.30 (R1) would suggest a target at 78.49 (R2). If the price holds its momentum on the upside we can expect a further rise towards to 78.68 (R3). On the other hand, if the price does not manage to break next support at 78.07 (S1) we can expect the pair to retest support at 77.92 (S2) and any further fall than would be limited by 77.76 (S3).

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