2012-10-01 03:26 GMT
ECB on wait-and-see mode this week - Nomura
No major policy announcements is expected from the ECB in October, says Nomura Senior European Economist Nick Matthews; "we do not expect any movement on rates as the Governing Council continues to see no urgency to cut rates again" the Economist notes. Furthermore, "while the ECB is likely to continue to expect inflation to remain in line with price stability over the policy-relevant horizon, we expect the Council to continue to stress that renewed intensification of financial market tensions could affect the balance of risks for both growth and inflation." Nick notes that "recent Governing Council comments, including from within the Executive Board, have reinforced this sense of wait-and-see on interest rates."
London session ahead will mostly bring manufacturing PMIs from several EZ countries starting with Spain at 07:13 GMT, followed 30 minutes later by Italy, France 5 minutes after, Germany another 5 minutes, and finally the EU's and Greece at 07:58 GMT. Then will come Italy unemployment at 08:00 GMT, and EU's unemployment 1 hour later.
Read More
|
|
2012-10-01 08:28 GMT
United Kingdom. Markit Manufacturing PMI
2012-10-01 09:00 GMT
European Monetary Union. Unemployment Rate
2012-10-01 14:00 GMT
United States. ISM Manufacturing PMI
2012-10-01 16:30 GMT
United States. Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
|
2012-10-01 04:36 GMT
USD/JPY can rise farther
2012-10-01 04:25 GMT
EUR/USD hardly above 1.28 round
2012-10-01 02:57 GMT
AUD/JPY slips below 80.50
2012-10-01 00:10 GMT
EUR/JPY returns below 100.00
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SUMMARY
Down
|
TREND
Downward
penetration
|
MA10
Bearish
|
MA20
Bearish
|
STOCHASTIC
Neutral
|
|
|
|
|
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Friday’s volatility increase might be a signal of downtrend development however Stochastic Oscillator is pointing up on the hourly chart and we expect to see some deviation ahead.
Main scenario: Intraday term bias remains negative below the next support at 1.2800 (S1). Break here would suggest next targets at 1.2773 (S2) and 1.2745 (S3).
Alternative scenario: Risk of further appreciation is seen above the resistance at 1.2853 (R1), penetration above it might expose resistances at 1.2879 (R2) and 1.2906 (R3) as next targets for correction.
-
|
|
|
|
|
|
SUMMARY
Down
|
TREND
Downward
penetration
|
MA10
Bearish
|
MA20
Bearish
|
STOCHASTIC
Neutral
|
|
|
|
|
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: GBPUSD failed to stabilize below the Friday’s low and we expect to see new attack to the fresh low, formed today. The medium term tendency is Bearish as both moving averages are pointing down.
Main scenario: If GBPUSD manage to break through support level at 1.6108 (S1) we expect next targets at 1.6079 (S2) and 1.6049 (S3) to be exposed today.
Alternative scenario: Next resistance level at 1.6156 (R1) in focus for the retracement formation. Progress above it would enable next target for today at 1.6182 (R2) and 1.6210 (R3).
-
|
|
|
|
|
|
SUMMARY
Up
|
TREND
Sideway
|
MA10
Bullish
|
MA20
Bullish
|
STOCHASTIC
Oversold
|
|
|
|
|
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Technical Summary: Instrument trades in positive tone after the Friday’ gains. On the hourly chart Stochastic Oscillator reached oversold zone and further increase is possible from current levels however we recommend to wait clear break out of Friday’s high for confirmation of the uptrend formation. Further decline below our support level might change overall technical picture and shift market sentiment to the bearish side.
Main scenario: Next resistance is seen at 78.10 (R1). If the pair manages to successfully climb above it, we expect next targets at 78.19 (R2) and 78.28 (R3).
Alternative scenario: While next support is placed at 77.83 (S1), decline below it would put in focus next target at 77.75 (S2) and any further depreciation would then be limited to 77.67 (S3) intraday.
-
|
